Give Aceh peace a chance

News that the Indonesian government and the armed separatist Aceh Free Movement (GAM) are ready to sign a peace agreement on Dec. 9 has been greeted with hope and a huge dose of skepticism.

Of course, many people would like to believe the announcement made by the Geneva-based Henry Dunant Center (HDC), which has been mediating between the two camps, that peace in Aceh is imminent. But there are too many hurdles to overcome to raise suspicions that Tuesday's announcement may have been premature.

Besides, history is not exactly on the side that would give optimists hope. We have had several peace or ceasefire agreements these past four years. None survived as they were broken within days of signing.

But there is no reason for people not to hope for peace, or at least for a cessation of hostilities, as miraculous as it sounds.

After enduring conflicts for nearly three decades, and after more than 10,000 lives were lost, mostly innocent civilians, ordinary Acehnese -- whose interests both GAM and the Indonesian government claim to represent or defend -- have grown weary of the war.

This is a war that has produced no clear winners at all. But there are plenty of losers. GAM and the Indonesian Military (TNI) have not only lost many soldiers in this war, but they have also had their images and reputations tattered because of their own conduct in trampling on people's basic human rights.

The biggest losers in this war, as in any war, however, are the civilians. They have lost their loved ones, and they have led a live of misery in almost constant fear.

Surely by now, for most, if not all the people in Aceh, enough is enough. This war must end now. Acehnese never deserved the kind of lives they have today. They deserve much better.

But why is there so much skepticisms about the good news?

For a start, most people would say that they have seen it all before. What chance would this agreement, even assuming that both sides signed it, have of surviving, when all previous agreements penned broke down even before the ink dried.

Going by the situation on the ground today, we will probably be lucky to even see any signing at all next month.

Within GAM, some officials have another interpretation about what exactly will happen on Dec. 9. They say that the date refers to a meeting they have agreed to attend to discuss the peace agreement. The signing comes later, if an agreement is reached.

Even Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, Indonesia's chief political minister, states that there are some outstanding issues that should be resolved before Dec. 9. These turn out to be crucial issues that will stand between war and a genuine peace: disarmament and the role of the Indonesian Military.

Would GAM agree to lay down their weapons as TNI insists on? Would TNI pull out its troops from Aceh as GAM demands? These are the sticking points that are unlikely to be resolved by Dec. 9.

The current TNI siege of GAM rebels at their base in Cot Trieng, North Aceh, is complicating the peace drive. Feeling that it has the upper hand, TNI is not likely to ease its military campaign anytime soon. Equally, GAM diehard rebels holed up in Cot Trieng are not likely to surrender without putting up a fierce fight. As long as the situation in Cot Trieng remains inconclusive, it is hard to envisage that the meeting on Dec. 9 will take place, let alone the signing of the agreement.

Admittedly however, there are some signs that the agreement, if signed, might just work. This agreement, by far, is the most comprehensive and most detailed compared to the earlier ones.

One of the crucial aspects of the agreement is the establishment of an international monitoring committee, which will ensure compliance by both sides. The earlier agreements did not spell out how they were to be enforced, and what sanctions would be imposed for breaking the terms.

The United States and Japan have also announced a conference on the reconstruction of Aceh in Tokyo on Dec. 3. This is further incentives for both sides to overcome their own ego, and genuinely work towards peace, for the sake of the people of Aceh.

Going by the Indonesian government's attitude, this is probably also a last chance for either side to end their hostilities in an elegant manner. Minister of Foreign Affairs Hassan Wirayuda, during a hearing with the House of Representatives on Wednesday, warned that if no agreement was signed by Dec. 9, the government would move to Plan B: The use of force to end the Aceh secessionist once and for all.

The consequence of failure therefore will be ugly for both sides. We have no way of knowing that TNI will win this war, or that GAM will be easily defeated. But we know that if the war escalated, the biggest losers will be the people of Aceh.

In expecting for the peace agreement to be signed on Dec. 9, are we not hoping for a miracle? Not necessarily. All we are saying is give peace a chance.