Get Ready! These 8 Data Releases Will Shake the Indonesian Market Next Week
Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia — Indonesia’s financial markets will face a busy week with a series of domestic and global data releases that could influence the direction of the rupiah, the stock market, and foreign capital flows.
Domestically, attention is focused on foreign exchange reserves, consumer confidence, and retail sales, while externally the market will scrutinise data from China, the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision, and United States inflation.
This series of events will determine sentiment, especially as expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy strengthen again following solid US labour market data.
The movement of the dollar, global bond yields, and investor appetite for emerging market assets could be key factors for the Indonesian market throughout the week.
- August 2026 Foreign Exchange Reserves
Bank Indonesia will announce the August foreign exchange reserves position on Monday (7/9/2026) at 10.00 WIB.
At the end of July 2026, Indonesia’s foreign exchange reserves stood at US$145.3 billion, relatively stable compared with US$145.6 billion at the end of June. This development was influenced by tax and services revenue as well as the government’s global bond issuance, amid government external debt payments and Bank Indonesia’s rupiah stabilisation policy.
This position is equivalent to financing 5.5 months of imports or 5.3 months of imports and government external debt payments, well above the international adequacy standard of around three months of imports. Bank Indonesia considers this level of foreign exchange reserves still adequate to maintain external sector resilience as well as macroeconomic and financial system stability.
The August release will be scrutinised to see how much room Bank Indonesia has to maintain rupiah stability amid global market volatility. Foreign exchange reserves that remain strong can support confidence in the rupiah and domestic financial assets, while a significant decline could indicate increased need for foreign exchange intervention or external payments.
- China’s Exports, Imports, and Trade Balance
China will announce August trade data on Tuesday (8/9/2026) at 10.00 WIB.
In July, China’s exports grew 23.9% year-on-year to US$397.85 billion, slowing from 27% in June. Imports also slowed from 36% growth to 27.5%, with a value reaching US$285.35 billion. Although still growing strongly, the slowdown in both indicates that China’s trade momentum is beginning to lose steam after the previous month’s surge.
The market will watch whether this slowdown trend continues in August, especially amid trade tensions with the United States and the still-weak recovery of domestic demand.
If exports weaken again, this could signal pressure on global demand and China’s manufacturing activity. Meanwhile, weaker imports could indicate softer domestic demand and commodity needs, including from supplier countries such as Indonesia.
For Indonesia, China’s trade data is important because the country is one of its main trading partners and a major buyer of Indonesian commodities. Weaker Chinese imports could pressure demand for coal, nickel, palm oil, and other commodities, which in turn could affect export performance, commodity prices, shares in related sectors, and sentiment towards the rupiah.
- Japan’s Economic Growth
Japan will release final second-quarter 2026 economic growth data on Tuesday (8/9/2026) at 06.50 WIB.
Initial estimates show Japan’s economy grew 1.1% on an annualised basis in the second quarter of 2026, slowing from 1.9% in the previous quarter and below market expectations of 2%. Private consumption stagnated due to cost-of-living pressures, while government spending increased. Investment also weakened, while rising exports and falling imports made a positive contribution to growth.
The market will watch whether the 1.1% figure is revised up or down. Attention is particularly focused on household consumption and investment, as both provide a picture of the strength of Japan’s domestic demand.
A stronger revision could reinforce expectations of Bank of Japan policy normalisation and support the yen. Conversely, a weaker revision could dampen expectations of interest rate hikes and pressure the yen.
For Indonesia, changes in Japanese interest rate expectations can affect global capital flows and Asian market sentiment, including the rupiah and the domestic stock market.
- China’s Inflation
China will announce August inflation data on Wednesday (9/9/2026) at 08.30 WIB.
In July, China’s consumer inflation slowed to 0.5% year-on-year from 1% in June, lower than market expectations of 0.8%. Food price pressures remained weak, while non-food inflation also eased. Core inflation fell slightly to 0.9% from 1% in the previous month.
Meanwhile, producer inflation or PPI grew 3.5% year-on-year in July, slowing from 4.1% in June and below expectations of 3.8%. This slowdown reflects still-weak domestic demand and easing energy cost pressures.
The market will watch whether consumer inflation weakens further and whether PPI continues to fall. Inflation that is too low could reinforce concerns about weak domestic demand and deflationary pressures, while increasing expectations of additional stimulus from the Chinese government or central bank.
For Indonesia, China’s inflation is important because it reflects the strength of demand in a major trading partner economy. If price pressures continue to weaken due to sluggish consumption and industrial activity, demand for Indonesian commodities could also come under pressure. Conversely, signs of healthy inflation recovery could support commodity demand prospects, sentiment in related sector stocks, and emerging market assets in Asia.
- Consumer Confidence Index
Bank Indonesia will release the August Consumer Confidence Index (IKK) on Wednesday (9/9/2026) at 10.00 WIB.
In July, the IKK fell for the third consecutive month to 116.8 from 117.8 in June, the lowest since April 2025. The weakness mainly came from assessments of current economic conditions, including purchases of durable goods and job availability.
Nevertheless, the index remains above the 100 level, indicating that consumers remain optimistic. Income expectations for the next six months also remain strong, although expectations regarding job availability and business activity also weakened.
The market will watch whether consumer confidence falls again in August. Further weakness could signal that household consumption, one of the main pillars of Indonesia’s economic growth, is beginning to lose momentum.
Conversely, an improvement in the IKK could support consumption prospects and sentiment towards retail, automotive, property, and consumer goods sector stocks.
- Indonesia’s Retail Sales
Bank Indonesia will release realised retail sales for July 2026 on Thursday (10/9/2026) at 10.00 WIB.
In June, retail sales fell 3.0% year-on-year, improving from a contraction of 3.9% in May. The decline mainly occurred in the food, beverages and tobacco, clothing, and information and communication equipment groups, although sales of household equipment and automotive spare parts still grew.
For July, Bank Indonesia estimates the Real Sales Index will grow 0.9% year-on-year, turning positive from the contraction in the previous month. The improvement is expected to be supported by sales of food, beverages and tobacco, spare parts and accessories, and household equipment.
The market will watch whether the July realisation truly returns to growth. If it meets or exceeds expectations, this could signal that household consumption is beginning to improve. Conversely, if sales remain weak, concerns about purchasing power and domestic consumption momentum could strengthen again.
For the market, an improvement in retail sales could support sentiment in consumer, retail, automotive, and banking sector stocks that are sensitive to household spending.
- European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision
The European Central Bank (ECB) will announce its interest rate decision on Thursday (10/9/2026) at 19.15 WIB.
At the July meeting, all ECB policymakers agreed to hold interest rates after previously raising rates for the first time since 2023 in June. According to the ECB meeting minutes, the decision was taken amid still-high uncertainty and the full impact of the energy price surge on inflation not yet fully visible.
Although holding rates in July, the ECB stressed that the decision did not signal the end of the tightening cycle. Several policymakers even stated they would not object to further rate hikes, while inflation risks were still assessed as tilted to the upside due to geopolitical developments in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine war.
Therefore, the market will watch whether the ECB raises interest rates again in September or chooses to hold them. A rate hike could strengthen the euro and push European bond yields higher, while a hold with a more dovish signal could produce the opposite response.
The ECB decision is also important for global markets because it takes place just days before the Federal Reserve meeting on 15-16 September. The policy direction of these two major central banks can influence the movement of the dollar, euro, global yields, and investor appetite for risky assets.
For Indonesia, changes in global interest rate sentiment can affect foreign capital flows, the rupiah, and the domestic stock market. A more hawkish ECB policy, together with expectations of Fed tightening, could increase yield competition with emerging market assets.
- United States Inflation
The United States will release August inflation data on Friday (11/9/2026) at 19.30 WIB.
In July, US consumer inflation slowed to 3.4% year-on-year from 3.5% in June. Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, fell to 2.5% from 2.6%.
The August release will be one of the main determinants of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate direction ahead of the 15-16 September meeting.
According to Reuters, strong US labour market data on Friday prompted the market to increase bets on a September rate hike. The US economy added 162,000 jobs in August, far above expectations of 56,000, while the unemployment rate held at 4.1%. The probability of a September rate hike rose to around 57% from 50% before the data was released.
Nevertheless, the US dollar trimmed some of its initial gains as investors awaited next week’s inflation data. Reuters noted that economists expect August core inflation to ease to 2.4% year-on-year from 2.5% in July. This figure will be a key focus because it provides a picture of whether underlying price pressures are truly continuing to ease.
If inflation comes in higher than expected, the likelihood of a rate hike could strengthen further and push the dollar and US bond yields higher. Conversely, weaker inflation could dampen rate hike expectations and open room for risky assets to strengthen.
For Indonesia, US inflation is important because it affects Fed policy, dollar movements, and global capital flows. Hotter inflation could increase pressure on the rupiah and the domestic stock market, while more benign inflation could potentially support Indonesian financial assets.