German Intelligence: Russia's Shadow War Growing More Dangerous, Open Conflict Possible
The head of Germany’s foreign intelligence agency, Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND), Martin Jager, has warned his country of the risk of being dragged into an armed conflict with Russia. This warning comes as Berlin assesses that Moscow’s hybrid operations against Germany and European nations are becoming increasingly aggressive and entering a more dangerous phase.
Jager delivered the warning during the annual public session of intelligence heads at the Bundestag on Monday (5/10/2026). According to him, threats to targets in Germany are now real and can no longer be viewed merely as conventional espionage activities.
“The confrontation we face with Russia has entered a new, more dangerous dimension,” Jager stated, as reported by Reuters. He subsequently warned that Germany risks being drawn into a violent conflict with Russia.
Deutsche Welle (DW) reported that the leaders of Germany’s three intelligence agencies presented a very serious tone during the session. The BND, the domestic intelligence agency BfV, and military counter-intelligence MAD described Germany as already being in the midst of a confrontation involving sabotage, cyberattacks, disinformation, and espionage.
However, the BND has not yet seen indications that Russia is preparing a large-scale military attack against NATO territory. Their concern lies instead in more limited, difficult-to-attribute operations that remain below the threshold of open warfare.
Germany as a Primary Target
According to Jager, Germany occupies a highly prominent position as one of Europe’s main hubs of support for Ukraine. Berlin provides military, financial, economic, and humanitarian aid to Kyiv, which, according to the BND’s assessment, leads the Kremlin to view Germany as an obstacle to Russia’s strategic ambitions in Europe.
Jager stated that if German support falters, the effects could ripple through other European nations and weaken support for Ukraine. Therefore, according to him, Russian pressure is directed not only at Germany’s military capabilities but also at its political and social resilience.
The Financial Times also reported that German intelligence agencies assess Russia’s “shadow war” against Europe has entered a new phase. Operations of concern include sabotage against infrastructure, defence systems, and various forms of covert actions aimed at pressuring countries that support Ukraine.
Jager warned that Moscow is closely observing how Germany responds to every instance of pressure. In his assessment, any signs of doubt or weakness could encourage the Kremlin to increase pressure further.
Russian President Vladimir Putin previously denied that his country intends to attack other nations. Reuters quoted Putin stating that Russia has no intention of attacking anyone but will respond if it becomes the target of aggression.
From Sabotage to Alleged Assassination Plots
The threats discussed in Berlin are not limited to cyberattacks. The head of the BfV, Sinan Selen, stated that activities linked to Russia have moved from espionage towards sabotage and even assassination operations, with transport routes, military infrastructure, and the defence industry identified as vulnerable targets.
Selen described these activities as calculated, systematic destabilisation operations. The goal, according to German security agencies, is to create uncertainty and erode the resilience of Western societies.
One case under scrutiny is an alleged attack attempt at Leipzig/Halle Airport in August. DW reported that a drone equipped with explosives was found near a Ukrainian cargo plane, while German domestic intelligence stated there were indications of Russian involvement.