German Energy Alert: Extreme Winter Could Impact 35 Per Cent of Gas Supply
REPUBLIKA.CO.ID, JAKARTA — Germany faces the risk of gas supply disruptions this winter if extreme weather conditions return, even though gas storage capacity has reached the current target of 76 per cent.
The warning was issued by the German gas storage operator group, Initiative Energien Speichern (INES), amid ongoing instability in the European energy market.
INES Managing Director, Sebastian Heinermann, said that experience from the previous winter showed that a gas storage fill level of 76 per cent was not enough to guarantee energy security if the weather was very cold.
“We have learned from last winter that a reservation and occupancy level of 76 per cent is only sufficient if weather conditions are favourable,” said Heinermann, a few days ago.
In an extreme winter scenario based on 2010 temperatures, INES estimates that Germany could experience a gas supply deficit of up to 20 terawatt-hours (TWh) between January and March 2027.
According to the group’s simulations, more than 35 per cent of Germany’s daily gas needs could potentially be unmet on certain days if prolonged cold weather occurs.
INES stresses that storage capacity is not enough if it is only reserved administratively, but must also be physically filled to face a harsh winter. “In order to be prepared for even a very cold winter, storage capacity must not only be reserved in sufficient quantities, but also physically filled,” said Heinermann.
However, current energy market conditions are making it increasingly difficult to fill gas storage. INES says that gas prices for winter delivery are currently lower than in summer due to disruptions in liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies, which limits the economic incentives for companies to store gas.
On 1 May 2026, the average gas storage level in Germany was recorded at only around 26 per cent, a level last seen during the European energy crisis of 2021–2022.
Pressure on Germany’s energy reserves was also evident in January when gas withdrawals from storage facilities almost doubled compared to the previous month due to cold weather.
INES notes that around 38 per cent of Germany’s gas needs in January were met from storage reserves.
The latest warning once again highlights the fragility of European energy resilience following reduced energy supplies from Russia and increased regional dependence on global LNG imports amid global geopolitical uncertainty.