Game Changer for Pertamina and National Oil and Gas Production

Currently, national oil production is around 600,000 BOPD, far from the target of 1 million BOPD and 12,000 MMSCFD of gas needed for energy self-sufficiency. Without massive acceleration in exploration, national oil production is projected to decline to between 580,000 and 590,000 BOPD by 2030. Pertamina, through its upstream subholding, contributes about 60-65% of national oil production and 30-35% of gas lifting. The company recorded a Reserve Replacement Ratio (RRR) of 117% in 2024, but its Reserve to Production Ratio (RTP) is relatively low at 7.3 years. Without new exploration, Pertamina’s production could fall from 579,000 BOPD in 2024 to around 300,000-350,000 BOPD by 2030. The company’s prospective resources (2U) are estimated at 15,232 MMBOE, significantly larger than its proven reserves, with much of this potential lying in Low Quality Reservoirs (LQR) and Non-Conventional Oil and Gas (MNK). LQR layers across Sumatra, Java, and Kalimantan hold over 3 billion barrels of oil in place. A successful pilot project, the KB-525 well, demonstrated that horizontal multi-stage fracturing could yield initial production of 569 BOPD, stabilising at 197 BOPD. However, the high cost of such wells, estimated at US$10.5 million, and the need for specialised infrastructure and clear fiscal regulations remain major hurdles for commercial development.