Fuel Prices Unlikely to Return to Normal Levels Soon, Analysts Say
Fuel prices are unlikely to return to normal levels soon, even as the conflict in Iran begins to subside. Analysts believe that the recovery of the global oil market will take a long time, mainly due to disruptions in energy distribution in the Strait of Hormuz.
As is well known, the Strait of Hormuz is the main route for global oil shipments from the Persian Gulf region. The closure of this route due to the conflict had triggered a surge in global oil and fuel prices.
Data from AAA shows that the average price of regular gasoline in the United States has reached US$4.54 per gallon, or approximately Rp77,180 per gallon, assuming an exchange rate of Rp17,000 per US dollar. Before the conflict, gasoline prices were below US$3 per gallon, or less than approximately Rp51,000 per gallon. GasBuddy’s chief oil analyst, Patrick De Haan, said that the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could lower fuel prices in the near term. However, a full recovery is expected to take a long time.
“The first third of the price decrease may occur within one to three months. The next third could take three to six months, and prices are likely to return to pre-war levels only in early to mid-2027,” he said, as quoted by Axios on Friday, May 15, 2026.
According to De Haan, the recovery process will take time because the distribution of oil from the Middle East has not yet fully recovered. In addition, oil production from the Persian Gulf countries also needs to be increased again after being temporarily reduced due to export disruptions.
S&P Global Energy’s fuel analyst, Rob Smith, also predicted that energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz would not immediately return to normal. “Even if the military conflict ends completely and permanently, it will still take several months before traffic through the Strait of Hormuz returns to pre-war levels,” he said.
Rystad Energy, an energy consultant, said that the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz over 30 days is already an optimistic scenario. They estimate that the recovery in oil shipment volumes will only begin to be seen at the earliest in June 2026.
In addition to distribution factors, fuel prices are also still influenced by old stocks purchased when oil prices were high. Therefore, even if global oil prices begin to fall, fuel prices at gas stations usually do not immediately follow suit.