Fuel Oil Stocks Secure, Import Dependence Becomes Indonesia's Energy Vulnerability

JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com - The government and PT Pertamina (Persero) have assured that the national supply of fuel oil is currently still in a safe condition amid global energy market volatility.

However, Fabby Tumiwa, CEO of the Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR), assesses that Indonesia’s energy resilience remains vulnerable due to dependence on oil imports, which account for around 60 per cent of total needs.

He states that Indonesia’s current relatively safe fuel oil stock condition deserves appreciation, especially when several other countries are beginning to face energy crises.

“What must be understood is that we are in a crisis situation. In normal conditions, a 21-day reserve might be safe. But this is not a normal condition because there are import disruptions,” said Fabby during the Kompas.com Newsroom Chat on Thursday (15/4/2026).

He explains that disruptions in crude oil and fuel oil import routes, particularly from the Middle East region, can directly impact national energy resilience, which still relies on imports.

Structurally, Indonesia’s daily fuel oil needs are around 1.6 million barrels per day, but domestic refinery production capacity can only produce about 1 million barrels.

As a result, Indonesia must import around 400,000 barrels of crude oil to be processed in refineries into fuel oil.

Meanwhile, the remaining 600,000 barrels of fuel oil are met through imports.

“So if added up, around 1 million barrels or 60 per cent of our oil needs, both fuel oil and crude oil, come from imports,” he said.

Consequently, although domestic stocks are still sufficient for the short term, the risk of shortages still looms if supply disruptions continue.

“So even though it’s safe, it’s risky. That’s why we must be more prudent in consuming fuel oil so that shortages do not occur,” he stated.

In this situation, Fabby emphasises the importance of the role of all parties.