Fragmented politics predicted

Fragmented politics predicted

M. Taufiqurrahman, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

Analysts painted a gloomy picture of the country's post-general
election political landscape on Wednesday, saying that it would
be more fragmented than before, with party squabbling hampering
the functioning of an effective government.

Political observer Indria Samego of the Habibie Center said
that with more political parties likely getting legislative seats
than in the 1999 election, the House of Representatives (DPR)
would turn into a massive horse-trading arena.

Indria said, for example, that Golkar's likely failure to get
its chairman Akbar Tandjung into the presidential seat would
prompt the party to demand bigger trades-off from
the winner of the presidential election.

"Because the Golkar party has the most seats, it will
eventually ask for more positions in the cabinet. Otherwise,
Golkar politicians in the House will vote against any policies
proposed by the future president. The same will also be true for
the other parties," he told a seminar on the post-election
political landscape organized by the Habibie Center.

By 10 p.m. on Wednesday, Golkar, the political party of former
autocrat Soeharto, led the pack in the legislative election with
20.85 percent of the 86,422,240 votes counted, compared to the
Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P)'s 19.83 percent.

Trailing behind the two parties were the National Awakening
Party (PKB) with 12.23 percent, the United Development Party
(PPP) with 8.28 percent, the Democratic Party with 7.52 percent,
and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) with 7.12 percent.

A total of 147.6 million voters had been registered to vote in
the April 5 elections.

Indria said Akbar would likely lose his bid in the direct
presidential election due to his ambiguous stance on corruption
issues.

Although he was exonerated by the Supreme Court in a graft
case last month, the public remains unconvinced that he was not
involved in the Rp 40 billion (US$4.8 million) financial scandal
involving the State Logistics Agency (Bulog).

Indria said that a number of Golkar politicians had pledged
that they would reject the programs of the future government
should they not be given "attractive" seats in the Cabinet.

"Such is the mentality of our politicians, they will object to
anything if they don't get what they want," he said.

He said that even if Golkar and the PDI-P formed a coalition,
there would still be instability as reform-minded political
parties, non-governmental organizations and the educated middle
class would oppose it. "It would be tantamount to the return of
the New Order," he said.

According to William Liddle, an Indonesian expert from Ohio
State University in the U.S., if the favorite in the presidential
race, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, was elected president, he would
be unlikely to find support in the House.

"Supposing SBY (as Susilo is familiarly known) got through the
first round of the presidential election and won the most votes
in the second round, he could not do much as his Democratic Party
will garner only around 7 percent of the votes in the legislative
elections," Liddle said.

Analyst Ikrar Nusabakti of the Indonesian Institute of
Sciences (LIPI) said that such fragmentation was the logical
consequence of a multiparty system.

"However, its adverse effects could be reduced if the
political parties with substantial numbers of legislative seats
were willing to act as an opposition. This would create a
conducive environment for checks and balances between the
government and the House," he told The Jakarta Post.