Former CIA Director Warns of Major Crisis as Iran Conflict Escalates
Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – Former CIA Director David Petraeus has highlighted current geopolitical conditions. He stated that ongoing conflicts in Iran and Ukraine demonstrate how warfare has evolved.
He warned that unmanned systems will cause major disasters in the future while also creating structural growth opportunities in the coming decade.
Speaking at the UBS Asia Investment Conference, Petraeus said the widespread use of drones in war zones shows rising dangers from autonomous weapons. This has also created an urgent need to improve defenses against them.
‘Everything will revolve around unmanned systems and defences against them. Unfortunately, current defences are inadequate for this scenario,’ Petraeus said, quoted by CNBC International on Friday, 29 May 2026.
‘While defences will never be perfect, they can be better than what we’ve seen so far,’ he added.
The expansion of drone usage in Middle Eastern conflicts will push the region to invest more in offensive and defensive capabilities.
Iran’s cheap Shahed drones have become a staple in regional proxy conflicts and attacks, while the US and its allies often rely on more expensive air defence missiles to intercept them.
Public estimates suggest the cost of using Shahed drones is around $20,000-50,000 (£16,000-40,000), far cheaper than ballistic or cruise missiles which can cost millions of dollars.
‘There will be massive spending on defences against what we’ve seen from Iran, which is merely a sign of future warfare,’ he added.
Petraeus noted that even a small number of drones have caused real problems, including reducing Qatar’s liquefied natural gas production.
The former four-star general, who also led the US Central Command, said the future of warfare will increasingly shift towards unmanned systems.
He added that within about a year, warfare will evolve beyond unmanned systems to include autonomous systems fighting each other.
Autonomous drones can form swarms to overwhelm defences through numbers, adapting to changing battlefield conditions by communicating with each other rather than being remotely controlled by humans.
Although future wars will be increasingly fought by drones, leading to rising expenditures, there are significant investment opportunities, according to Petraeus.
When asked about defence supply chains likely to see significant growth, Petraeus cited ‘unmanned systems of various types’.
A key moment in the future will occur when individual automated weapons used in military operations evolve into systems of automated systems.
In this scenario, automatic sensors will collect data from the battlefield, feed it into automated command and control systems, which then order automated weapon systems to act with minimal or no human intervention.
The shift towards fully autonomous systems, he added, is partly driven by the difficulty of maintaining command and control links on the battlefield.
If drones or other weapon systems cannot rely on constant communication with human operators, they must navigate, identify targets, and coordinate independently.
‘Autonomy will be a truly remarkable development in the future,’ Petraeus said.
He said satellite-based communications, such as SpaceX’s Starlink, would help connect various unmanned platforms.
Petraeus noted that Iran’s Shahed drones do not rely on satellite communications, describing them more as ‘low-level cruise missiles’ than remotely controlled drones.
‘All of this will happen soon in our neighbouring regions,’ Petraeus said. ‘The investment implications are enormous,’ he concluded.