Forestry Minister Says Forest Fire Trend Declining During El Niño, but Vigilance Must Remain

Minister of Forestry Raja Juli Antoni stated that Indonesia’s ability to control forest and land fires (karhutla) has continued to show improvement over the last several El Niño cycles. Nevertheless, the government must not be complacent because the threat of karhutla during the 2026-2027 El Niño period remains significant. This was conveyed by Minister Antoni during a Special Coordination Meeting on Forest and Land Fire Control in Jakarta on Thursday, June 18, 2026. The meeting was also attended by Coordinating Minister for Political and Security Affairs Jenderal TNI (Purn) Djamari Chaniago, Minister of Agrarian Affairs and Spatial Planning/National Land Agency Nusron Wahid, Deputy Minister of Home Affairs Akhmad Wiyagus, Deputy Minister of Transportation Suntana, and Deputy Minister of Forestry Rokhmad Marzuki. Coordinating Minister for Political and Security Affairs Djamari Chaniago emphasised that handling and mitigating karhutla is the responsibility of all parties. He warned that officials, from regional police chiefs to military commanders, could be reassigned or risk their positions over fire management failures. On the same occasion, Minister Raja Antoni explained that the area affected by karhutla during El Niño events has shown a consistent downward trend. In 2015, the affected area was approximately 2.61 million hectares, which fell to 1.64 million hectares in 2019, and further declined to around 1.16 million hectares in 2023. He noted that over the last two El Niño cycles, the area of karhutla was reduced by up to 55.6 percent compared to 2015, attributing this success to strong collaboration among various parties, including BMKG, BNPB, the military and police, local governments, the Manggala Agni fire brigade, community fire awareness groups, and the wider public. Despite the declining trend, Minister Antoni urged heightened vigilance. As of May 2026, the recorded area of karhutla had reached approximately 81,000 hectares, an increase compared to the same period during the 2019 and 2023 El Niño events. BMKG has also predicted that this year’s dry season will arrive earlier, last longer, and be drier, with the peak expected between July and September. Antoni expressed confidence that through anticipatory measures such as weather modification operations and canal blocking, combined with the active roles of stakeholders and the community, the nation can successfully combat the fires.