Forest Fire Risk in Central Kalimantan Predicted Higher in 2026

The risk of forest and land fires (karhutla) in Central Kalimantan (Kalteng) province in 2026 is expected to be significantly higher than in the two preceding years, according to Ahmad Toyib, head of the Central Kalimantan Regional Disaster Mitigation Agency (BPBD).

Toyib made the statement during a national dry season prediction dissemination event held online by the Central Kalimantan provincial government on Monday, 9 March. He attributed the increased fire risk to several factors, including an earlier-than-normal onset of the dry season and weather conditions expected to be drier with below-normal rainfall.

“The dry season is predicted to begin in late May 2026 with drier conditions and a longer duration lasting approximately five months,” he explained. Additionally, weak El Niño conditions are expected to emerge in June 2026, which could further elevate the risk of forest fires across several areas of Central Kalimantan.

However, Toyib expressed confidence based on recent experience. He noted that the province has demonstrated the ability to control karhutla effectively through inter-agency cooperation and coordination. The successful management of moderate El Niño effects in 2023 serves as a testament to the effectiveness of early detection and rapid fire suppression efforts.

Toyib added that various fire prevention and management programmes already allocated in departmental budgets will provide a foundation for 2026 efforts. He emphasised that declaring Emergency Status for karhutla in accordance with existing regulations is crucial for strengthening field control measures, facilitating resource mobilisation and operational support for prevention and mitigation efforts in Central Kalimantan.