Foreign Exchange Reserve Release Expected to Influence JCI This Week

Equity Analyst at PT Indo Premier Sekuritas (IPOT), Hari Rachmansyah, stated that the movement of the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) this week will be influenced by the release of several economic data points, ranging from foreign exchange reserves and the Consumer Confidence Index to retail sales performance. He noted that a decrease in foreign exchange reserves could potentially exacerbate market fears regarding Bank Indonesia’s capacity to stabilise the rupiah.

“Fundamentally, the JCI remains under significant pressure entering the week of 8–12 June 2026. The combination of May inflation exceeding expectations (3.08 per cent year-on-year), the rupiah breaching the Rp 18,000 level, and total net foreign selling year-to-date reaching Rp 60.8 trillion reflects a systemic erosion of investor confidence,” Hari said in a written statement on Monday, 8 June 2026. The foreign exchange reserve data is scheduled for release today.

The FTSE Russell rebalancing, which becomes effective on 22 June 2026, will also continue to shadow market movements. The global index provider has announced eight Indonesian stocks for adjustment: PT Dian Swastika Sentosa Tbk (DSSA), PT Daaz Bara Lestari Tbk (DAAZ), PT Hillcon Tbk (HILL), PT Mulia Industrindo Tbk (MLIA), PT GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk (GOTO), PT Trimegah Bangun Persada Tbk (NCKL), PT BUMA Internasional Grup Tbk (DOID), and PT Nusantara Sejahtera Raya Tbk (CNMA).

Hari assessed that the current bearish momentum remains dominant, with a downward trend structure that has yet to show signs of reversal. Throughout last week, the JCI recorded a sharp correction of 8.69 per cent. This steep decline occurred simultaneously with the weakening of the rupiah, which breached the level of Rp 18,000 per US dollar.

According to Hari, under these conditions, investors should adopt a defensive strategy by reducing exposure to small and medium-cap stocks with thin liquidity. “For medium-term investors, use this momentum to selectively monitor big-cap stocks in the banking and consumer staples sectors, where valuations are historically attractive, but continue to enter gradually with small allocations while awaiting certainty regarding Bank Indonesia’s monetary policy direction,” he advised.