Foreign Economist Predicts US Dollar Could Reach Rp18,600

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - The exchange rate of the Rupiah continues to fall against the US dollar. The Garuda currency has now officially broken through the psychological level of Rp18,000/US$ in trading on Thursday (June 4, 2026).

According to Refinitiv data, as of 09.11 WIB, the Rupiah weakened to a level of Rp18,015/US$ or depreciated by 0.42%. This position is also the latest all-time low for the Rupiah against the US dollar.

UOB Kay Hian economist Surya Wijaksana said that the Rupiah’s weakening by more than 100 basis points in a single day is an unusual condition. According to Surya, this is triggered by a decline in public confidence.

“Yes, confidence is decreasing even though the real economy is still good. Just look at the impact,” he said.

The news regarding the rating that S&P Global will assign to Indonesia, according to Surya, will not have such a significant impact.

“It doesn’t affect the Rupiah’s rapid depreciation,” he said.

Surya believes that the impact of the inverted yield curve is actually a greater sentiment in the market, in line with Indonesia’s trade balance performance and the risk of a hawkish global central bank.

Regarding the inverted yield curve, the yield of Indonesian government bonds (SBN) in the long-term market is considered by the market to be at too low a level. Meanwhile, Bank Indonesia (BI) has raised the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points.

With these developments, Surya estimates that the Rupiah will move in the range of Rp18,000-Rp18,200 per US dollar in the short term. Meanwhile, by the end of the year, the Rupiah is projected to reach Rp18,600 per US dollar.

(haa/haa)