Folly of military option

Folly of military option

Various statements from top government and Indonesian Military
(TNI) officials about the problem of Aceh in the past week have
confirmed our worst fear: The military option has been put back
on the front burner once again. Other options still available at
the government's disposal, including the search for a negotiated
settlement, have been put on hold while the military steps up its
campaign against the armed Aceh Free Movement (GAM).

The Coordinating Minister for Political and Security Affairs,
retired Army general Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, said on Saturday
that a new military operation would soon be launched in Aceh. Lt.
Gen. Ryamizard Ryacudu, the chief of the Army Strategic Reserves
Command (Kostrad), set TNI's objective in such a campaign in no
uncertain terms: a total annihilation of GAM.

With the government and TNI hardening their positions, the
situation on the ground is now ripe for full-scale conflict, with
all its ugly consequences. The death of the chief of the
Indrapuri Subdistrict Military Command last week has made the TNI
more resolute, if not to quash GAM, then at least to exact
revenge.

The conflict between TNI and GAM has increased both in
frequency and intensity in recent weeks. The human casualties
have been alarming, not only among the two warring camps, but
more tragically, among civilians. Now hardly a day goes by
without this newspaper reporting new deaths in Aceh.

The government's decision to pursue the military option,
however, defies logic and is shortsighted. It was probably
concocted upon the delusion that the military is gaining the
upper hand in its war against GAM.

Any TNI claim that it is close to crushing GAM, and that it is
winning the hearts and minds of the people in Aceh, must be
treated with a grain of salt. Like any party to a conflict, the
military has had its share of propaganda, just as GAM has had
its. In all likelihood, TNI's claim that it is winning the war is
mostly propaganda in an effort to turn public opinion to support
the military option plan.

TNI may have made many important arrests, including six GAM
negotiators, killed one or two top GAM commanders, or won one or
two battles, but it is far from winning the war against GAM. And
given that GAM is waging guerrilla warfare, it is inconceivable
that TNI can ever hope to win the Aceh battle.

History is not on TNI's side, or on the side of any military
dealing with guerrillas. TNI's history is full of debacles in
fighting separatist rebels: East Timor, Irian Jaya and Aceh.

In Aceh, a military operation launched in 1989 not only failed
to annihilate GAM, but it hardened and strengthened the rebels.
It also drove more Acehnese to the separatist cause, thanks in no
small measure to the many human rights atrocities attributed to
TNI. When that operation ended in 1999, it left a deep scar among
the Acehnese, and destroyed TNI's credibility so much that many
people in Aceh and outside still believe to this day that TNI is
part of the problem and thus can never be part of the solution.

Those who advocate a military campaign in Aceh should think
again. The military option has been tried before in East Timor,
Irian Jaya and Aceh. Each time, it failed the nation miserably.

The use of military force should never be an option in the
first place. It is not only ineffective and costly in terms of
human lives, but, as the lessons of East Timor should have taught
us by now, it could be the one single major factor that pushes
Aceh out of the republic.

The nation's best hope in winning the hearts and minds of the
Aceh people remains in the search for a negotiated settlement.
President Megawati has made the right overtures, with a public
apology to Aceh people in her Independence Day speech this month,
and ordering the release of six GAM members who were arrested
during peaceful negotiations. The police, for some unexplained
reason, have yet to carry out this presidential order.

The government has also started to implement a new law that
gives Aceh sweeping autonomy and a greater share of revenue from
natural resources. All this accumulated goodwill and confidence-
building could be wiped out overnight if and when the government
decides to use the military option.