Folly of military option

Various statements from top government and Indonesian Military (TNI) officials about the problem of Aceh in the past week have confirmed our worst fear: The military option has been put back on the front burner once again. Other options still available at the government's disposal, including the search for a negotiated settlement, have been put on hold while the military steps up its campaign against the armed Aceh Free Movement (GAM).

The Coordinating Minister for Political and Security Affairs, retired Army general Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, said on Saturday that a new military operation would soon be launched in Aceh. Lt. Gen. Ryamizard Ryacudu, the chief of the Army Strategic Reserves Command (Kostrad), set TNI's objective in such a campaign in no uncertain terms: a total annihilation of GAM.

With the government and TNI hardening their positions, the situation on the ground is now ripe for full-scale conflict, with all its ugly consequences. The death of the chief of the Indrapuri Subdistrict Military Command last week has made the TNI more resolute, if not to quash GAM, then at least to exact revenge.

The conflict between TNI and GAM has increased both in frequency and intensity in recent weeks. The human casualties have been alarming, not only among the two warring camps, but more tragically, among civilians. Now hardly a day goes by without this newspaper reporting new deaths in Aceh.

The government's decision to pursue the military option, however, defies logic and is shortsighted. It was probably concocted upon the delusion that the military is gaining the upper hand in its war against GAM.

Any TNI claim that it is close to crushing GAM, and that it is winning the hearts and minds of the people in Aceh, must be treated with a grain of salt. Like any party to a conflict, the military has had its share of propaganda, just as GAM has had its. In all likelihood, TNI's claim that it is winning the war is mostly propaganda in an effort to turn public opinion to support the military option plan.

TNI may have made many important arrests, including six GAM negotiators, killed one or two top GAM commanders, or won one or two battles, but it is far from winning the war against GAM. And given that GAM is waging guerrilla warfare, it is inconceivable that TNI can ever hope to win the Aceh battle.

History is not on TNI's side, or on the side of any military dealing with guerrillas. TNI's history is full of debacles in fighting separatist rebels: East Timor, Irian Jaya and Aceh.

In Aceh, a military operation launched in 1989 not only failed to annihilate GAM, but it hardened and strengthened the rebels. It also drove more Acehnese to the separatist cause, thanks in no small measure to the many human rights atrocities attributed to TNI. When that operation ended in 1999, it left a deep scar among the Acehnese, and destroyed TNI's credibility so much that many people in Aceh and outside still believe to this day that TNI is part of the problem and thus can never be part of the solution.

Those who advocate a military campaign in Aceh should think again. The military option has been tried before in East Timor, Irian Jaya and Aceh. Each time, it failed the nation miserably.

The use of military force should never be an option in the first place. It is not only ineffective and costly in terms of human lives, but, as the lessons of East Timor should have taught us by now, it could be the one single major factor that pushes Aceh out of the republic.

The nation's best hope in winning the hearts and minds of the Aceh people remains in the search for a negotiated settlement. President Megawati has made the right overtures, with a public apology to Aceh people in her Independence Day speech this month, and ordering the release of six GAM members who were arrested during peaceful negotiations. The police, for some unexplained reason, have yet to carry out this presidential order.

The government has also started to implement a new law that gives Aceh sweeping autonomy and a greater share of revenue from natural resources. All this accumulated goodwill and confidence- building could be wiped out overnight if and when the government decides to use the military option.