Five-Day Rally Ends as Coal Prices Dip Despite Positive News

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - Coal prices cooled after soaring for five days. According to Refinitiv, coal prices closed at US$133.8 per tonne, weakening by 0.22%.

This decline interrupted the positive trend in coal prices, which had strengthened for five consecutive days by 11.4%.

Coal prices flattened despite a surge in oil prices and numerous other positive reports.

In trading on Tuesday (28/4/2024), crude oil prices rose again on Tuesday. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) jumped more than 3% to close at US$99.93 per barrel, while Brent rose 2.8% to US$111.26 per barrel.

Reports from India indicated that they increased coal- and gas-fired power generation last week after peak electricity demand reached a record 256.1 gigawatts (GW) over the weekend amid a heatwave, according to official data.

India’s peak electricity demand rose to a record 256.1 GW on 25 April, up from the previous record of 252.08 GW the day before, according to federal power grid data.

India operates around 9.6 GW of gas-fired power capacity and raised coal-fired electricity production to about 187 GW, according to Grid-India data.

NTPC, India’s largest thermal power producer, is purchasing gas through the Indian Gas Exchange and operating plants in line with Grid-India directives, a company official said.

Forecasts of the strongest El Niño phenomenon in a decade are expected to drive hotter and drier weather across Asia.

India estimates peak electricity demand will reach around 270 GW this year and is confident it can meet it.

India is also likely to become even more reliant on coal and has postponed maintenance on nearly 10,000 megawatts of coal-fired power capacity until July.

Thailand imported 5.5 million tonnes of thermal coal in Q1-2026, up 20% year-on-year (yoy) according to customs data. March imports were recorded at 1.8 million tonnes, stable from the previous month but far above 1.2 million tonnes in March 2025 and higher than the projected 1.5 million tonnes.

Supply from Indonesia reached 4 million tonnes in Q1-2026, up 410,000 tonnes or 11% yoy. Meanwhile, imports from Australia surged to 1.3 million tonnes, up 49% from 870,000 tonnes in the same period last year.

The full-year import projection has been revised upwards, with H1-2026 imports now estimated at 10.7 million tonnes, up 1.4 million tonnes from last year. Overall, the H1 projection shows 15% yoy growth.

Thailand’s higher-than-expected import performance reflects strong domestic electricity and industrial demand. Thailand is also expanding supply sources, marked by a surge in shipments from Australia amid stable volumes from Indonesia.

March imports were well above last year’s levels and market projections, indicating buyers continue to secure cargoes despite high global coal prices.

Thailand’s strong imports signal a positive note for the seaborne thermal coal market, showing that Southeast Asian demand remains solid despite global price volatility. The main suppliers benefiting from this trend are Indonesia and Australia.

The upward revision of the H1-2026 projection also indicates imports will remain robust into Q2, potentially supporting regional prices.

Unstable Coal Demand?

The phenomenon of a “coal comeback” following the Iran war is expected to be far smaller than widely discussed. Analysis from the Ember institute suggests that the global increase in coal-based electricity in 2026 will be at most 1.8%, or even lower.

Supply disruptions from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are indeed prompting countries such as Japan, Pakistan, the Philippines, Germany, and Italy to review energy policies and increase coal use. However, the impact is deemed limited.

Ember estimates additional coal consumption at around 175 TWh, with the majority coming from potential gas-to-coal switching in China and the European Union. Other countries like India and Indonesia may also see increases, but not significantly.

Analysts argue that the main story is not a coal revival, but rather the ongoing long-term decline trend. In fact, solar and wind energy are replacing more gas-fired plants than coal ones.