Fiscal Warning Light: Economists Deem Indonesia's Debt Entering Critical Phase in 2026

JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com - Indonesia’s fiscal condition in 2026 is deemed to enter a critical phase. The pressure stems from rising debt and burdens on the State Revenue and Expenditure Budget (APBN).

This assessment is outlined in the report “Critical Analysis of Indonesia’s Debt Sustainability 2026” compiled by the Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (ISEAI).

ISEAI senior analyst Ronny P. Sasmita believes that measures of fiscal stability are insufficient by merely looking at the debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio.

“National stability can no longer be assessed solely through the debt stock-to-GDP ratio, but must consider cash flow dynamics and interest payment burdens,” said Ronny in the report, quoted on Tuesday (21/4/2026).

The debt structure is still dominated by rupiah-denominated Government Securities (SBN). This composition provides partial protection against exchange rate risks.

The government debt ratio is around 41.3 percent of GDP in 2026. This figure is still below the safe limit of 60 percent. The consistent upward trend is seen as indicating structural pressure.

One of the main risks arises from the debt wall phenomenon. Obligations maturing reach Rp 833.96 trillion in 2026. This figure is the highest in a decade.

Pressure increases because the need for new financing remains substantial. High global interest rate conditions could potentially raise debt costs.

Interest burden becomes the most tangible pressure on the APBN. The government is projected to allocate Rp 599.44 trillion for interest payments in 2026.

This value is equivalent to more than 22 percent of tax revenues. This figure exceeds the international safe standard of around 10 percent.

Economic growth is projected at around 5.1 percent. This rate is deemed insufficient to offset the rise in debt costs.