Finance Ministry Confident of 5.5% Economic Growth in Q1 2026, These Are the Supporting Factors

JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com - The Ministry of Finance (Kemenkeu) forecasts that national economic growth in the first quarter of 2026 will surge to 5.5% year-on-year (yoy). Deputy Finance Minister Juda Agung stated that the economy at the start of the year will grow higher due to the government’s efforts to increase the realisation of state expenditure and an increase in state revenues from taxes. “The Ministry of Finance’s projection for growth in the first quarter is estimated at 5.5%,” he said during the launch of PINISI at the Bank Indonesia building in Jakarta on Monday (27/4/2026). This is to ensure that the contribution of state spending to the economy is more evenly distributed, rather than concentrated only at the end of the year. Recall that last year alone, government consumption contributed around 7.53% to national economic growth. Furthermore, for the second, third, and fourth quarters, the realisation of state spending is targeted to reach 26% of the 2026 state budget allocation in each quarter. “So this is indeed the aim to make economic growth even, fast, and occurring in the same year. There is indeed a change in the pattern of government consumption,” he added. With efforts to accelerate state spending, household consumption, which is the largest contributor to the national economy, can continue to increase. In addition, Juda noted that economic growth will be higher due to increased tax revenues, particularly from Value Added Tax (PPN) and Sales Tax on Luxury Goods (PPnBM). Up to the first quarter of 2026, tax revenues reached Rp394.8 trillion, or grew 20.7% compared to the same period last year. This realisation improved compared to the first quarter of 2025, which was Rp327 trillion or declined 18.8% year-on-year (yoy). Juda revealed that PPN and PPnBM contributed significantly to tax revenues in this period, amounting to Rp155.6 trillion or growing 57.7% (yoy). This indicates an increase in economic activity both through household consumption and transactions in the business sector. Because PPN and PPnBM are paid for consumptive transactions and purchases of goods for the business world. “With PPN and PPnBM increasing quite significantly, consumer expectations and so on, this is what makes us optimistic that in the first quarter it will grow 5.5%,” he explained.