Feeding 10 Billion: AI Forced to 'Work' in the Fields

Climate change, war, and supply chain disruptions are making the global food market increasingly unpredictable. In recent years, the world has faced food price surges due to the Covid-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, and the recent conflicts in the Middle East. Simultaneously, the agricultural sector must contend with more frequent droughts, extreme weather, and declining land quality.

These conditions are driving a massive wave of investment into agricultural technology. According to an AgFunder report cited by The Economist, global investment in agricultural innovation is expected to reach over US$16 billion by 2025. Of this amount, approximately US$9 billion is allocated to research aimed at increasing agricultural productivity. This represents a sharp increase from around US$2.5 billion in 2016.

This investment surge stems from increasingly urgent needs. The global population is expected to approach 10 billion people in the coming decades, while food production capacity faces pressure from climate change. Consequently, the global food industry is seeking new ways to produce more food from the same amount of land using water, fertilisers, and pesticides more efficiently.

One rapidly developing approach is precision agriculture. This technology combines field sensors, artificial intelligence (AI), weather analysis, and plant genetic data. Each plot of land is treated based on actual field conditions. Soil moisture, air temperature, sunlight intensity, and the presence of microorganisms in the soil are analysed to determine the most effective treatment for crops.

The Italian technology company, EVJA, serves as an example of this model’s application. Sensors installed in the fields collect real-time environmental data, which AI then processes to predict crop disease risks, water requirements, potential yields, and carbon footprints. According to the company, users of this system can reduce water and fertiliser consumption by up to 40% for certain horticultural commodities such as tomatoes, potatoes, and leafy vegetables.

Innovation is also emerging in the crop protection sector. The startup B-COS is developing molecules with characteristics similar to chitin, a compound commonly found in insect exoskeletons and fungal cell walls. When sprayed on plants, these molecules trigger the plant’s natural defence system, making it more prepared for disease attacks. The company claims the technology under development can increase drought resistance and suppress disease attacks by 40-50%.

Another significant shift is occurring in the plant breeding process. While developing new varieties previously required years of conventional selection processes, researchers are now utilising machine learning to accelerate the search for the best genetic combinations. Plant genetic data is integrated with information regarding yields, nutritional content, and flavour profiles. The system then assists researchers in selecting superior candidates for further development.

This approach is being used by Aardaia, a startup based at Wageningen University & Research in the Netherlands. The company is developing ‘aardaker’, a wild plant known as the ‘protein potato’. According to its founder, plant geneticist Pádraic Flood, this commodity has the potential to produce several times more protein per hectare than soybeans.

Through ‘speed breeding’ techniques that regulate light, temperature, and humidity in growth chambers, Aardaia can produce five generations of plants in a single year. Initial results show that tuber productivity has already increased approximately tenfold compared to wild varieties.

The hunt for future food crops is also directed towards quinoa. The Dutch startup Radicle Crops is developing quinoa varieties that are more resistant to climate change and more competitive against weeds. The company has begun commercialising hybrid varieties claimed to produce grain yields 25-45% higher than previous varieties. Quinoa is of particular interest due to its high protein content and nine essential amino acids required by the human body.

Despite rapid technological advancements, adoption is still in its early stages. The Economist notes that agricultural technology companies accounted for only about 1.3% of global early-stage venture capital funding in 2024. This figure remains well below the agricultural sector’s contribution of approximately 4% to global gross domestic product. However, the direction of movement is clear. As the world faces the challenge of feeding a growing population, farmlands are increasingly being filled with sensors, algorithms, and genetic analysis. Global food competition in the coming decades will likely be determined by the ability of nations and businesses to transform data into harvests.