Fed Statement Pushes Rupiah Weakness: Analysts

The rupiah weakened against the US dollar at the opening of trade in Jakarta on Wednesday, 18 February 2026, amid external pressure following hawkish signals from United States Federal Reserve officials.

The rupiah fell 18 points, or 0.11 per cent, to IDR 16,855 per USD from IDR 16,837 per USD previously.

Lukman Leong, a currency analyst at Doo Financial Futures, said the depreciation followed hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials Michael Barr and Mary Daly.

“The rupiah is expected to weaken against the strengthening US dollar following hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials Barr and Daly last night,” he said in Jakarta on Wednesday.

Barr, the Federal Reserve’s vice chair for supervision, said the Fed’s benchmark interest rate would likely remain in place for some time. Daly, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, said inflation still needs to decline further as it has not yet reached the central bank’s target and the labour market remains volatile.

Data from the CME FedWatch Tool showed that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping its benchmark interest rate unchanged at the March 2026 Federal Open Market Committee meeting rose to 94 per cent from around 80 per cent previously.

Domestically, investors are also anticipating Bank Indonesia’s policy stance at its meeting on Thursday, 19 February 2026.

“Bank Indonesia is expected to keep interest rates unchanged as the rupiah has been under pressure recently,” Lukman said.

Based on these factors, the rupiah is projected to trade in the range of IDR 16,800 to IDR 16,900 per USD.