FAO warns of worsening RI food crisis

FAO warns of worsening RI food crisis

SINGAPORE (Dow Jones): Indonesia's food situation has worsened
to such an extent that it needs to import more rice while its
production is set to fall, according to an Oct. 6 report by the
crop and food supply assessment mission of the Rome-based UN's
Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Food Program.

The assessment, conducted during Sept. 7-Sept. 25, is a
follow-up to an April mission.

Indonesia's rice import forecast for April 1998 to March 1999
has been boosted to 5.145 million metric tons, up 47% from the
April forecast of 3.5 million tons.

As of mid-September, Indonesia's national logistics agency
Bulog has imported 2.42 million tons and contracted another
525,000 tons.

Confirmed food assistance pledges stand at 765,000 tons, of
which 600,000 tons will come from Japan.

This leaves a deficit of 1.43 million tons, of which bilateral
discussions are underway for some 1 million tons, said the
FAO/WFP team.

Owing to a smaller second rice crop, Indonesia's total 1998
paddy output is now forecast at 45.38 million tons, down 5% from
the previous forecast.

This estimate, some 4 million tons or 8 percent lower than the
previous year's reduced harvest, will be the lowest since 1991.

The fall in second-rice-crop output is due to a planting delay
of one to two months, which had reduced productivity; pest
attacks; and the dramatically reduced use of fertilizers and
high-cost pesticides.

Indonesia's corn production is forecast at 9.627 million tons,
up from 8.77 million tons the previous year. Owing to lower corn
demand from the poultry industry, Indonesia has no need for corn
imports this year, said the FAO/WFP report.

Indonesia's soybean production is projected at 1.467 million
tons, up from 1.357 million tons a year ago, while its cassava
output is forecast at 16.391 million tons, up from 15.134 million
tons in 1997.

Indonesia's 1998-99 wheat import forecast is still pegged at
4.016 million tons, though the FAO/WFP report said wheat demand
may be affected by the removal of subsidies and a change in
relative prices.

So far, some 1.5 million tons of wheat imports have been
delivered and an additional 500,000 tons are expected in further
bilateral assistance by January 1999, said the report. It added
that talks on a further one million tons of wheat imports through
bilateral assistance over the next two years are going on.

Although it is too early to project the volume of Indonesia's
main 1999 rice crop, which is planted from Oct. 1998, the FAO/WFP
team said favorable weather, cheaper labor and a government
program to boost rice output should contribute to a recovery in
output.

But it said international assistance will still be needed for
food and agriculture rehabilitation.

The FAO/WFP team, which visited 18 of Indonesia's 27
provinces, surveyed areas that typically account for 95 percent
of the country's rice production.