FAO Launches Anticipatory Measures in Somalia Ahead of El Niño-Fuelled Floods

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) announced on Monday that it is launching anticipatory measures in Somalia to mitigate the impact of adverse weather expected during the upcoming rainy season, which could be worsened by El Niño. The UN agency stated there is a probability of over 90 per cent that El Niño conditions will develop from mid-2026 and intensify during the Deyr season in October-December. Current projections suggest that the 2026 El Niño could potentially reach severity levels equal to or higher than previous events, according to the FAO. This is expected to trigger heavy rainfall, rising river levels, and severe flooding, particularly along the Juba and Shabelle river basins, threatening the safety of more than 274,000 people living in the Shabelle River floodplains. The anticipatory measures will be implemented ahead of the projected Deyr flood season, the FAO said. The UN agency noted that through enhanced risk forecasting, early warning systems, and household preparedness, vulnerable communities will be better equipped to face the floods. Flood mitigation activities, including the clearance of debris around the Sabuun barrage, will benefit approximately 269,000 people, while nearly 38,000 of the most vulnerable individuals will receive anticipatory cash assistance to support safe relocation and meet urgent needs. Somalia remains one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable countries, facing recurrent and overlapping cycles of drought and flooding, the FAO said, which erode livelihoods, trigger displacement, and weaken food security. Nearly 6 million people are projected to face acute food insecurity at crisis levels or worse between April and June, including 1.9 million facing emergency conditions. The FAO added that protracted conflict, economic pressures, and reduced humanitarian funding, alongside surging global fuel prices linked to the Strait of Hormuz crisis, are driving up transport costs and disrupting supply chains in the import-dependent nation.