Fact Check: Did This Man Predict a Massive Earthquake in Indonesia?
Fact Check: Did This Man Predict a Massive Earthquake in Indonesia?
Reporter
October 5, 2026 | 06:11 am
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - A video featuring a foreign man predicting that a massive earthquake will strike Indonesia before the end of 2026 is circulating widely on social media. The content has been shared by account 1 [archive] and account 2 on X; account 3 and account 4 on Facebook; account 5 and account 6 on Instagram; and account 7 on Threads.
The man in the video states that an earthquake with a magnitude between 7.0 and 9.0 will cause severe damage in Indonesia, affecting Jakarta, Java, and surrounding areas.
Who is the man in the video? Is it true that a massive earthquake will shake Indonesia before the end of 2026?
FACT CHECK
Tempo verified the content through interviews with Indonesia’s BMKG (Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency) and confirmation from credible sources. The findings indicate that, to date, no technology exists capable of specifically predicting the time, location, and magnitude of an earthquake.
Video Creator Is Not an Earthquake Expert
The man in the video is a Canadian content creator named Frankie MacDonald. The video was originally created and uploaded to Frankie MacDonald’s Facebook account on September 3, 2026, before being reshared.
His YouTube profile states that MacDonald lives in Sydney, Nova Scotia, and produces independent weather reports covering storms and typhoons. MacDonald has had autism since childhood and graduated from Sydney Academy in 2002. He gained internet popularity through his extreme weather forecast videos on various social media platforms, including Facebook, Instagram, Threads, X, TikTok, LinkedIn, and Snapchat. His Instagram account, @frankiemacd1984, even holds a verified (blue check) status.
He worked in the maintenance department at Mayflower Mall in Sydney for 20 years. According to Greg Morrison, the mall’s general manager, MacDonald is a role model for many people living on the autism spectrum.
Together with Halifax-based writer and freelance journalist Sarah Sawler, MacDonald authored a book titled “Be Prepared! The Frankie MacDonald Guide to Life, the Weather and Everything.”
Earthquakes Cannot Be Predicted
Pepen Supendi, the Acting Head of Earthquake and Tsunami Data Quality Control at BMKG (Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency), stated that there is currently no method or technology capable of specifically predicting earthquakes.
Pepen explained that Indonesia is at risk of major earthquakes due to its location amidst tectonic fault lines and seismic source zones. However, this potential cannot be used to determine exactly when an earthquake will occur.
“The public need not panic over such claims. Nevertheless, it remains necessary to enhance preparedness, as earthquakes can indeed occur at any time,” Pepen told Tempo via WhatsApp on Monday, September 7, 2026.
Frankie’s statement does not qualify as a scientific prediction. A valid prediction must detail the methods and equipment used, as well as specify the location and timing down to the hour, minute, and second. The estimated magnitude must also be specific, given that each one-level increase represents an energy release 30 to 32 times greater.
Pepen warned that earthquake predictions lacking a scientific basis can trigger public panic and disrupt economic, transportation, tourism, and government activities. “Under certain circumstances, it is entirely possible for casualties or losses to occur due to panic or uncontrolled evacuation efforts,” Pepen said.
Therefore, information regarding earthquake predictions must be conveyed responsibly and based on verifiable scientific methods.
CONCLUSION
Tempo’s verification concludes that the forecast of a major earthquake striking Indonesia before the end of 2026 is a misleading claim.
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