Face saving for ASEAN's leaders

Face saving for ASEAN's leaders

The Nation, Asia News Network, Bangkok

The about-face on Burma (Myanmar) by ASEAN leaders in Bali
should not surprise anyone. When the Association of Southeast
Asian Nations faces a crisis from within, it has traditionally
shied away from confronting it, choosing instead to show
solidarity rather than washing its dirty linen in public.

That the ASEAN leaders decided to make a U-turn on Burma is a
classic case of ASEAN preferring to save face at all cost and
against all odds. After all, this particular meeting was an
auspicious occasion: The ASEAN leaders were sending off one of
the region's most seasoned and colorful figures, Malaysian Prime
Minister Mahathir Mohamad who, ironically, not long ago
threatened to kick Burma out of the grouping.

Mahathir did not say anything negative about Burma this time.
Had he done so, he would have thrown the Bali summit into chaos.

Now that the ASEAN leaders have endorsed the Burmese roadmap
to democracy, it is incumbent on the Burmese military leaders to
show that they really mean it. But that is a very tall order.

History has shown repeatedly that Burma has failed to honor
its word and as such cannot be trusted, so it could well be that
the junta has simply been handed more leeway to prevaricate over
national reconciliation.

ASEAN is keen to give an opportunity to new Prime Minister Lt.
Gen. Khin Nyunt to realize his seven-point plan. Yet it had no
choice but to go along as the grouping's leaders understand that
he could be in power for a long time. Bali, therefore, is a
personal triumph for him and Burma.

By backing Khin Nyunt, ASEAN is hoping it can strengthen his
role and authority over the hard-liners within the Burmese ruling
clique and accelerate the stalled dialogue with Aung San Suu
Kyi's National League for Democracy. Yet unfortunately no ASEAN
leader showed any sympathy for the opposition party leader or her
role in Burma's transformation into a democracy.

As host, Indonesia became timid towards the end of the Bali
summit by lowering the expectations. The plan it had put forward
to establish the ASEAN Security Community by 2020 was supposed to
be a highlight. But this was played down due to the region's
growing ambiguity towards the prevailing strategic environment.

It seems that threat perceptions among ASEAN's members
continue to be different. Bridging them now might prove
impossible and could backfire. Thus the idea that ASEAN can form
a security community that maintains a common foreign and defense
policy has been relegated to a later time.

September 11 made ASEAN a strategic linchpin in this part of
the world by default. So while it might have decided to broaden
its economic and security relationships with all Asian powers in
a concerted effort to balance growing U.S. influence, Bali shows
only that its solidarity is intact, not its prestige -- not as
long as it continues to defend Burma.