Extreme Weather Alert: BMKG Detects Three Tropical Cyclone Disturbances Near Indonesia
The Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG) has issued an early warning of potential extreme weather forecast to occur on Wednesday, 4 March 2026. The conditions are spurred by the monitoring of three tropical cyclone seeds currently within the BMKG Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) monitoring area. This atmospheric phenomenon directly affects the growth of rain-bearing clouds across several regions of Indonesia.
Based on current atmospheric dynamics, there are three tropical cyclone systems influencing national weather patterns:
Tropical Cyclone Seed 90S: Detected in the southwest Indian Ocean, south of West Java. The system has a maximum wind speed of 25 knots and a central pressure of 1000 millibars. Over the next 48 to 72 hours, this seed is forecast to intensify and move northeast to east.
Tropical Cyclone Seed 92P: Located in the Gulf of Carpentaria with wind speed of 15 knots. Although expected to weaken in the coming days, this system will form a convergence area along the northern coast of Australia.
Tropical Cyclone Seed 935: Tracked in the waters off the north-west of Australia with wind speed of 25 knots. This system is forecast to persist and intensify, forming a convergence area from Lampung to the southern part of Java.
The convergence and interaction of these three seeds are expected to produce significant convergence regions. The public is urged to heighten preparedness, especially in areas likely to experience heavy to very heavy rainfall. Affected regions include Banten, Jakarta, West Java, Yogyakarta, Central Java, East Java, Bali, as well as West Nusa Tenggara (NTB) and East Nusa Tenggara (NTT).
In addition to provincial forecasts, BMKG detailed the forecast for major cities:
Western Indonesia: Potential thunderstorms with heavy rain predicted for Padang, Jambi, Pangkal Pinang, Bandar Lampung, Serang, Yogyakarta, Surabaya, Banjarmasin and Palangkaraya. Jakarta, Bandung, Medan and Palembang are forecast to experience light rain. Cloudy to overcast conditions are expected in Banda Aceh, Pekanbaru and Pontianak.
Eastern Indonesia: Thunderstorms to be watched in Merauke. Moderate rain potentially affecting Makassar and Mamuju. Most of Sulawesi, Maluku and Papua are forecast to receive light rain, while Palu is expected to have hazy or largely cloudy conditions.
BMKG projects that Lebaran 2026 travel and Idul Fitri 1447 H/2026 celebrations remain shadowed by the potential for heavy rain in several regions. BMKG has issued forecasts for 3 March 2026 and previously for Monday, 2 March 2026. The public is urged to heighten vigilance for potential heavy to very heavy rainfall that may be accompanied by lightning and strong winds.