Exports Tumble in January As Global Slump Hits Home
Indonesia’s exports skidded dramatically in January, by 36.8 percent year-on-year and 17.70 percent month-on-month, the Central Statistics Agency, or BPS, reported on Monday.
Demand weakened in every major trading destination. Imports fell as well, down 17.63 percent from December to $6.34 billion as the domestic economy slowed.
January exports fell to $7.15 billion, the lowest level since November 2005, from $11.19 billion in the same month last year and $8.69 billion in December.
BPS recorded sharp declines inside and outside the oil and gas sectors, with oil and gas exports tumbling by a substantial 57.8 percent to $947.1 million from the same month last year at $2.24 billion, and declining 23.9 percent from the December figure of $1.24 billion.
Exports of non-oil and gas products dropped to $6.21 billion, 30.6 percent off from January 2008 at $8.95 billion and a fall of 16.7 percent from December at $7.45 billion.
Japan remained the largest export market destination followed by the United States and Singapore.
‘Our partners in the region all suffered export drops. They then cut back on imports.’
Rusman Heriawan,
head of BPS
Looking at the monthly breakdown from December to January, non-oil and gas exports to Japan dropped to $788 million from $1.19 billion in January last year and $1.01 billion in December; to the United States to $772.3 million from $1.02 billion in January last year and $907 million in December; and to China to $451.1 million from $687.2 million a year earlier and $456.1 million in December.
Non-oil and gas exports to the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations fell to $1.26 billion from $2.14 billion in January 2008 and $1.51 billion in December.
“We have experienced this [fall] since October. It has been falling from month to month in line with the global financial crisis,” said Rusman Heriawan, the head of BPS.
“This is a reciprocal effect,” he said. “Our partners in the region, particularly Singapore, Malaysia and Taiwan, all suffered from export drops. They then cut back on their imports from us.”
Rusman’s view was echoed by Enrico Tanuwidjaja of OCBC Bank, who said the fall was in line with regional plunges as Asia’s economies have shrunk.
“Considering that Indonesia also serves such regional markets, the demand for raw and intermediate Indonesian goods is likely to be significantly reduced,” he said.
Enrico warned that domestic consumption had slowed as well, and was likely to continue to do so in the first two quarters of this year until the effect of the fiscal stimulus kicks in. Although oil and gas imports increased by 6.11 percent $1.04 billion from the previous month, non-oil and gas imports were down by 21.1 percent to $5.3 billion.
Nonetheless, Indonesia still posted trade surpluses, both monthly and annually, with the monthly surplus for January at $810.7 million, from $992 million in December.
Enrico also warned that the import contraction would outpace exports as weakened oil and commodity prices cut both ways, depressing export revenues while also shaving the import bill for refined oil.
Demand weakened in every major trading destination. Imports fell as well, down 17.63 percent from December to $6.34 billion as the domestic economy slowed.
January exports fell to $7.15 billion, the lowest level since November 2005, from $11.19 billion in the same month last year and $8.69 billion in December.
BPS recorded sharp declines inside and outside the oil and gas sectors, with oil and gas exports tumbling by a substantial 57.8 percent to $947.1 million from the same month last year at $2.24 billion, and declining 23.9 percent from the December figure of $1.24 billion.
Exports of non-oil and gas products dropped to $6.21 billion, 30.6 percent off from January 2008 at $8.95 billion and a fall of 16.7 percent from December at $7.45 billion.
Japan remained the largest export market destination followed by the United States and Singapore.
‘Our partners in the region all suffered export drops. They then cut back on imports.’
Rusman Heriawan,
head of BPS
Looking at the monthly breakdown from December to January, non-oil and gas exports to Japan dropped to $788 million from $1.19 billion in January last year and $1.01 billion in December; to the United States to $772.3 million from $1.02 billion in January last year and $907 million in December; and to China to $451.1 million from $687.2 million a year earlier and $456.1 million in December.
Non-oil and gas exports to the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations fell to $1.26 billion from $2.14 billion in January 2008 and $1.51 billion in December.
“We have experienced this [fall] since October. It has been falling from month to month in line with the global financial crisis,” said Rusman Heriawan, the head of BPS.
“This is a reciprocal effect,” he said. “Our partners in the region, particularly Singapore, Malaysia and Taiwan, all suffered from export drops. They then cut back on their imports from us.”
Rusman’s view was echoed by Enrico Tanuwidjaja of OCBC Bank, who said the fall was in line with regional plunges as Asia’s economies have shrunk.
“Considering that Indonesia also serves such regional markets, the demand for raw and intermediate Indonesian goods is likely to be significantly reduced,” he said.
Enrico warned that domestic consumption had slowed as well, and was likely to continue to do so in the first two quarters of this year until the effect of the fiscal stimulus kicks in. Although oil and gas imports increased by 6.11 percent $1.04 billion from the previous month, non-oil and gas imports were down by 21.1 percent to $5.3 billion.
Nonetheless, Indonesia still posted trade surpluses, both monthly and annually, with the monthly surplus for January at $810.7 million, from $992 million in December.
Enrico also warned that the import contraction would outpace exports as weakened oil and commodity prices cut both ways, depressing export revenues while also shaving the import bill for refined oil.