Exports Surge, Trade Minister Budi Optimistic Indonesia's Trade Balance Will Improve

Trade Minister Budi Santoso said he is optimistic that Indonesia’s trade balance will improve at the start of the second half of 2026, in July, following export performance that continues to show a positive trend.

“This July, we hope the deficit will disappear, because if we look at non-oil and gas commodities, they are always in surplus,” Budi said in Jakarta on Monday, 17 August 2026.

“Non-oil and gas and its growth are always rising. Our export growth from January to June is also up,” he said.

Budi noted that the trade balance deficit in June 2026 stood at US$0.45 billion, an improvement compared with the US$1.61 billion deficit in May 2026.

Indonesia’s total exports in June 2026, both oil and gas and non-oil and gas, were recorded at US$25.46 billion, an increase of 9.72 percent compared with exports in May 2026 of US$23.20 billion.

The increase in exports was mainly supported by non-oil and gas exports, which reached US$24.39 billion in June 2026, up 8.68 percent compared with May 2026’s US$22.45 billion.

On the other hand, the non-oil and gas trade surplus in June 2026 reached US$3.04 billion. In addition to export value, Budi also reported that Indonesia’s export volume also increased. In June 2026, export volume was recorded at 56.52 million tonnes, up 3.31 percent compared with May 2026’s 54.71 million tonnes.

“So, we are optimistic, especially if the geopolitical situation improves, meaning the war conditions decrease and oil prices fall,” Budi said.

He assessed that one factor behind the trade balance deficit in the past two months was high global oil prices.

“The deficit factor in May-June was because in March-April global oil prices were at their highest, so our oil and gas deficit became larger. When our oil and gas deficit grew larger, it outweighed the surplus commodities,” Budi said.

“Now, hopefully prices will start to stabilise while non-oil and gas exports continue to perform well,” he said.