Explaining reasons behind Democratic Party's popularity

Explaining reasons behind Democratic Party's popularity

Muhammad Qodari, Director of Research,
Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI), Jakarta,
qodari@lsi.or.id

The Democratic Party (PD), which was founded only on Sept. 9,
2001, came out as one of the best performers in the April 5
legislative election.

A nationwide survey conducted by the Indonesian Survey
Institute (LSI) last November showed that the prospect of votes
for the PD was quite tiny -- less than 1 percent. The latest
survey by the International Foundation for Electoral Systems
(IFES) just before the campaigning period in March predicted only
1.6 percent for the PD.

While prospects for the PD had been dim prior to the
campaigning period, the prospects for another new strong
performer, the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), was already quite
promising. According to the LSI November survey, the PKS would
win more than 2.5 percent of the vote. The PKS' popularity
steadily increased, as was shown by tracking surveys by IFES in
January, February and early March 2004. In early March, the PKS
secured 4.4 percent.

As I wrote in this paper on March 25, the wider popularity of
the PKS can be attributed to three reasons: strong image as an
antigraft political party, campaigning themes focusing on
universal issues such as corruption eradication, instead of the
implementation of sharia, and massive mobilization by a solid
network of party members. The success of the PKS appeared to be
the result of collective efforts and consistent member
development.

The key variables to the PKS' success were not available to
the PD, whose officials are not known to the public. Unlike the
leader of the United Democratic Nationhood Party (PPDK), Ryaas
Rasyid, a widely known academic-cum-bureaucrat, the leader of the
PD, S. Budhisantoso, is a University of Indonesia professor only
known by his students and academic circles -- in the field of
anthropology.

As a new party established two and a half years before the
election took place, most people are not aware of the track
records of the PD and its executives. The PD is not a part of the
government at the national or the local levels.

Thus, the strong showing of the PD in the April 5 elections
can solely be attributed to the popularity of Susilo Bambang
Yudhoyono. The correlation between the popularity of the party
and the popularity of its presidential nominee is obvious. Before
he was marginalized and eventually resigned from Megawati
Soekarnoputri's Cabinet, Susilo was already a popular
presidential aspirant. But his popularity was only second or
third to Megawati and Amien Rais.

His resignation from the Cabinet, which attracted huge media
attention and generated a lot of front-page news, seemed to
contribute to his sky-rocketing popularity. Both surveys by LSI
and IFES showed that the retired four-star general is now the
most popular presidential candidate, even more popular than
Megawati.

Susilo's increasing popularity seemed to be the main factor
that prompted many people to vote for the PD, as this party has
from the outset touted Susilo as its presidential candidate.

Hence, people who want Susilo for president, have no choice
but to vote for Susilo as Law No.23/2003 stipulates that in order
to be eligible to nominate a presidential and vice presidential
candidate, a political party or a coalition of parties must win
at least 3 percent of the seats in the House of Representative or
5 percent of the popular vote for the House.

The only way to secure a ticket for Susilo for the
presidential election is to help the PD win at least 3 percent of
the seats at the House. This stipulation turned out to be a
blessing in disguise for the PD.

In a way, the pattern of votes for the PD resembles the
pattern of votes for President Megawati's Indonesian Democratic
Party of Struggle (PDI-P) in 1999. At that time, Megawati was at
the height of her popularity. Apart from being one of Sukarno's
daughters, she was seen as Soeharto's political victim. Most
people who voted for her party, did so because they liked
Megawati -- not the party. These voters were people longing for a
hero or heroine. When they lost admiration or trust in Megawati,
they turned their attention to Susilo as their new hero.

It is therefore safe to predict that many of the votes for the
PD were cast by former Megawati supporters, who in 1999 voted for
her party.

The votes for the PD would have been much larger had the
campaigning period not been limited to three weeks. The PD's
popularity would have been greatly bolstered had Susilo been able
to campaign for more than three weeks.

According to the LSI survey, the PD's popularity was only 5
percent (based on responses from respondents), while the
popularity of Susilo was 20 percent.

However, the trend whereby it was a charismatic figure that
attracted votes for a political party is worrisome. The case of
the PDI-P clearly shows that as Megawati's popularity fell, the
votes for her party decreased as well.

Even though the PD will certainly pass the 3 percent
electoral threshold required to be eligible for 2009 election,
the PD is going to fail to win a significant number of votes in
2009 if in the next five years the popularity of Susilo nose-
dives too. The only thing that may prevent this from happening is
organizational improvement and satisfactory performance from its
representatives in the House.

The PD's success to most likely gain more than 5 percent of
the popular vote for the House will make the party eligible to
nominate Susilo as a presidential candidate along with a running-
mate, who has not yet been determined.

The success in the legislative election has brought the
party's leaders to the next big challenge of mobilizing support
for Susilo and whoever he chooses as his vice president. The PD
has benefited from Susilo's popularity. It is now the PD's turn
to do the same for Susilo.

It is quite clear that if most parties were established
primarily to fight for a clearly defined ideology and mission,
the PD was established with one purpose -- that is to become a
political vehicle for Susilo to become the president.

However, bearing in mind that the PD will only be a medium-
size party in the House, the party cannot do it alone. Which
party the PD forms a coalition with will once again depend on
Susilo. So please watch Susilo movements over the next few weeks,
and take note of whom he receives at his residence.