Explaining Democratic's Party's popularity

Muhammad Qodari Director of Research Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI) Jakarta qodari@lsi.or.id

The Democratic Party (PD), which was founded only on Sept. 9, 2001, came out as one of the best performers in the April 5 legislative election.

A nationwide survey conducted by the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI) last November showed that the prospect of votes for the PD was quite tiny -- less than 1 percent. The latest survey by the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) just before the campaigning period in March predicted only 1.6 percent for the PD.

While prospects for the PD had been dim prior to the campaigning period, the prospects for another new strong performer, the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), was already quite promising. According to the LSI November survey, the PKS would win more than 2.5 percent of the vote. The PKS' popularity steadily increased, as was shown by tracking surveys by IFES in January, February and early March 2004. In early March, the PKS secured 4.4 percent.

As I wrote in this paper on March 25, the wider popularity of the PKS can be attributed to three reasons: strong image as an antigraft political party, campaigning themes focusing on universal issues such as corruption eradication, instead of the implementation of sharia, and massive mobilization by a solid network of party members. The success of the PKS appeared to be the result of collective efforts and consistent member development.

The key variables to the PKS' success were not available to the PD, whose officials are not known to the public. Unlike the leader of the United Democratic Nationhood Party (PPDK), Ryaas Rasyid, a widely known academic-cum-bureaucrat, the leader of the PD, S. Budhisantoso, is a University of Indonesia professor only known by his students and academic circles -- in the field of anthropology.

As a new party established two and a half years before the election took place, most people are not aware of the track records of the PD and its executives. The PD is not a part of the government at the national or the local levels.

Thus, the strong showing of the PD in the April 5 elections can solely be attributed to the popularity of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. The correlation between the popularity of the party and the popularity of its presidential nominee is obvious. Before he was marginalized and eventually resigned from Megawati Soekarnoputri's Cabinet, Susilo was already a popular presidential aspirant. But his popularity was only second or third to Megawati and Amien Rais.

His resignation from the Cabinet, which attracted huge media attention and generated a lot of front-page news, seemed to contribute to his sky-rocketing popularity. Both surveys by LSI and IFES showed that the retired four-star general is now the most popular presidential candidate, even more popular than Megawati.

Susilo's increasing popularity seemed to be the main factor that prompted many people to vote for the PD, as this party has from the outset touted Susilo as its presidential candidate.

Hence, people who want Susilo for president, have no choice but to vote for Susilo as Law No.23/2003 stipulates that in order to be eligible to nominate a presidential and vice presidential candidate, a political party or a coalition of parties must win at least 3 percent of the seats in the House of Representative or 5 percent of the popular vote for the House.

The only way to secure a ticket for Susilo for the presidential election is to help the PD win at least 3 percent of the seats at the House. This stipulation turned out to be a blessing in disguise for the PD.

In a way, the pattern of votes for the PD resembles the pattern of votes for President Megawati's Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) in 1999. At that time, Megawati was at the height of her popularity. Apart from being one of Sukarno's daughters, she was seen as Soeharto's political victim. Most people who voted for her party, did so because they liked Megawati -- not the party. These voters were people longing for a hero or heroine. When they lost admiration or trust in Megawati, they turned their attention to Susilo as their new hero.

It is therefore safe to predict that many of the votes for the PD were cast by former Megawati supporters, who in 1999 voted for her party.

The votes for the PD would have been much larger had the campaigning period not been limited to three weeks. The PD's popularity would have been greatly bolstered had Susilo been able to campaign for more than three weeks.

According to the LSI survey, the PD's popularity was only 5 percent (based on responses from respondents), while the popularity of Susilo was 20 percent.

However, the trend whereby it was a charismatic figure that attracted votes for a political party is worrisome. The case of the PDI-P clearly shows that as Megawati's popularity fell, the votes for her party decreased as well.

Even though the PD will certainly pass the 3 percent electoral threshold required to be eligible for 2009 election, the PD is going to fail to win a significant number of votes in 2009 if in the next five years the popularity of Susilo nose- dives too. The only thing that may prevent this from happening is organizational improvement and satisfactory performance from its representatives in the House.

The PD's success to most likely gain more than 5 percent of the popular vote for the House will make the party eligible to nominate Susilo as a presidential candidate along with a running- mate, who has not yet been determined.

The success in the legislative election has brought the party's leaders to the next big challenge of mobilizing support for Susilo and whoever he chooses as his vice president. The PD has benefited from Susilo's popularity. It is now the PD's turn to do the same for Susilo.

It is quite clear that if most parties were established primarily to fight for a clearly defined ideology and mission, the PD was established with one purpose -- that is to become a political vehicle for Susilo to become the president.

However, bearing in mind that the PD will only be a medium- size party in the House, the party cannot do it alone. Which party the PD forms a coalition with will once again depend on Susilo. So please watch Susilo movements over the next few weeks, and take note of whom he receives at his residence.