Experts split over merits of coalition government
By Sugianto Tandra
JAKARTA (JP): Observers agree a multiparty coalition government is inevitable after the June 7 general election, but are divided on whether it will lead to a weak government.
Chairman of the Islam Community Party Deliar Noer said on Wednesday the country's presidential system would check against ineffectual rule.
But Arbi Sanit of the University of Indonesia and Andi A. Mallarangeng of Ujungpandang-based Hasanuddin University in South Sulawesi concurred a weakened government would be put in place.
Absence of a party strong enough to lead the pack would create a "fragmented" coalition, Andi said. The coalition would find it difficult to set up a government; if one was established, it would produce ineffectual policies.
Andi and Arbi agreed a law currently in the pipeline should be able to limit the number of political parties in the House of Representatives. The House is part of the highest lawmaking body, the People's Consultative Assembly.
Although there are more than 100 political parties, the government estimates only about 15 will be qualified to contest the poll.
To ward off the possibility of a fragmented coalition, Arbi suggested the two-round ballot system practiced in Russia and France.
All political parties would be allowed to join the first stage, but only parties winning a particular amount of votes would qualify for the second runoff. Losing parties would be required to merge with qualified parties.
Arbi argued fewer parties would enter the legislature, preventing the possibility of a fragmented coalition.
"In such a poll, all parties can contest the poll so their rights to democracy are served," Arbi told The Jakarta Post.
Andi, also a member of the government team that drafted the political bills being deliberated by the House, differed. He said the House should be the party to set a "threshold" to limit the number of poll contestants, automatically reducing the number of parties entering the House.
The government proposed that parties which failed to win 55 of the proposed 550 House seats would have to merge. The legislators deliberating the bill, however, has reduced the threshold to only 2 percent, or 11 seats.
"Problems would emerge when parties had to coalesce to form a minimum 51 percent majority in the People's Consultative Assembly," Andi said.
Andi predicted the resulting government would be weak because it would be difficult for any party to win 30 percent of the House seats to emerge as the "anchor" to lead the coalition.
The government would be especially vulnerable if there were pronounced ideological differences in the coalition, he added.
Instead of an anchor party, he added, "we would need instead the presence of a strong person, a sage who can mediate, make concessions and is nonpartisan".
Parliamentary
Deliar -- a senior political scientist turned politician -- dismissed concerns for an emasculated government. He said it was derived from Andi and Arbi's line of thinking within the framework of a parliamentary political system, which did not apply to Indonesia's presidential system.
"In the presidential system, it is the president who forms the Cabinet ... so the coalition will depend on the president."
The problem for a coalition is to select its president, and then the MPR through a process of "secret voting" would elect him or her, he said.
"So here, the presidential candidate must actively look for supporters, those he or she could choose to cooperate with (as vice president and ministers).
"He or she must actively learn about programs of (MPR) factions, not of parties ... because it will be the factions that will be the true representation of the people, not the parties."
He believed "the playing field will then have shifted to factions, not parties any more".
Article 6 of the 1945 Constitution stipulates that the MPR elects a president and a vice president through majority votes.
Deliar said in a presidential political system, government programs were a more important issue, but a parliamentary system hinged more on the question of parties.
Citing the American presidential system, Deliar said "effective policies" could be produced even if the Congress was Republican-dominated and the president a Democrat.
"Coalition is a matter of willingness of parties concerned (to merge)," said Deliar, who obtained his doctorate from Cornell University.
He argued that even if the upcoming law on political parties required parties to gain less than the 2 percent threshold, there could still be a problem in its working.
"What if parties are unable to find suitable partners for a coalition?" Deliar asked.