Experts predict global crude oil prices could rise to 100 US dollars per barrel
An energy expert from Padjadjaran University (Unpad), Yayan Satyakti, has predicted that global crude oil prices could rise to as much as 100 US dollars per barrel from the current range of 72 US dollars per barrel under a scenario of Strait of Hormuz closure.
“If it were closed today, prices could jump directly to 90–100 US dollars per barrel within days,” Satyakti said when contacted by ANTARA from Jakarta on Monday.
The Strait of Hormuz is a strategically significant maritime route linking the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman, situated between Oman and Iran, and serves as a primary global energy trade corridor. Approximately one-fifth of total global oil exports flow through this strait, including most crude oil from Gulf nations such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Iraq, before being shipped to international markets.
“If Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices will increase by 50 percent,” Satyakti stated.
He warned that Indonesia, which imports oil from the Middle East, faces inevitable fuel price increases. Even without a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, he noted, the ongoing Middle Eastern conflicts could drive oil prices up by 10–25 percent.
Considering the potential rise in oil prices beyond the macroeconomic assumptions in the 2026 state budget, which assumes 70 US dollars per barrel, Satyakti urged the government to prepare for budgetary constraints.
On Saturday (28 February), Israel and the United States launched attacks against Iran. This was the second such attack under United States President Donald Trump’s administration, following an earlier strike in June 2025. Trump stated that American forces had launched major military operations in Iran to protect its people by eliminating what he claimed were threats stemming from Iran’s alleged nuclear weapons development programme.
The United States and Iran had previously held three rounds of indirect negotiations regarding Iran’s nuclear programme, mediated by Oman. The third round of talks took place on Thursday (26 February) in Geneva amid escalating regional tensions.
Benchmark crude oil prices had risen approximately 13 percent to around 82 US dollars per barrel, though they currently stand at 76.4 US dollars per barrel. A full closure of the Strait of Hormuz is estimated to push prices above 100 US dollars per barrel, with implications for average Brent crude prices throughout 2026 at approximately 85 US dollars per barrel.