Experts discount social revolution but urge caution

By Ridwan Max Sijabat & M.M.I. Ahyani

JAKARTA (JP): Political experts played down on Saturday widespread fears of a social revolution, but warned against complacency because violence and political chaos could persist until the general election in June.

Arbi Sanit of the University of Indonesia, Indria Samego of the Indonesian Institute of Sciences and Andi A. Mallarangeng of the Ujungpandang-based Hasanuddin University separately told The Jakarta Post that some groups favoring the status quo of the New Order government or disappointed with the present government might work to incite violence.

The observers were asked to comment on developments in the wake of plans to hold a general election in June and the General Session of the People's Consultative Assembly in August, which will elect a new president.

"Many sporadic and local violent riots are expected to occur across the country in the coming months, but they will not lead to a social revolution because they would be facing the proreform movement and the current government, including the military," Arbi said.

He said proreform groups including students would continue with their movement for democracy through a general election to form a legitimate government.

"Until the general elections in June, we will continue to run in place, meaning no political changes will be made and, despite riots, the pro-status quo groups would not to be able to return to power."

The experts criticized the initiative of leading Muslim leader Abdurrahman Wahid to hold a national dialog, which included meeting former president Soeharto, to try to make him part of the dialog. They said the inclusion of Soeharto was unacceptable.

Abdurrahman, who says a national dialog is needed to avoid a social revolution, has argued it should involve Soeharto apart from President B.J. Habibie, Minister of Defense and Security/ABRI Commander Gen. Wiranto and himself as head of Nahdlatul Ulama, which boasts 30 million members.

Gus Dur, as Abdurrahman is known, said on Saturday that Soeharto should be involved because many people "still love him". He formerly argued that the loyalists would "react" if Soeharto was treated "inhumanely", necessitating the need to include him in the dialog.

The government has started an investigation into Soeharto's wealth following public demands that he be held accountable for alleged abuse of power. Abdurrahman said on Friday he doubted whether Soeharto was serious about engaging in a dialog.

Indria said fears of a social revolution were "dramatized".

On Thursday Alwi Sihab, deputy of the People's Awakening Party which Abdurrahman chairs, said in Bandung that Abdurrahman was trying all means possible to quell the continuous violence.

Alwi cited the mysterious killing spree mainly in East Java, in which more than 100 of the victims were religious teachers and members of Nahdlatul Ulama.

"Of course, Gus Dur feels he must settle these problems. It is he alone who can feel this tragedy (the killings of his members). He's trying everything to avoid a repetition of such violence."

Indria said informal communication among the political elite would be better and that they should "set good examples" in respecting the law to attain political stability.

Arbi added a national dialog could only be held if all the different parties were ready to meet as one.

Elections

Regarding the planned elections, Andi Mallarangeng warned of more riots if the House of Representatives, which is deliberating political bills including one on the elections, decided on a proportional system.

The system would entail a mobilization of the masses, particularly if massive mobilization and transportation of people from one regency to another were allowed, he said.

"It is an unwise decision," he cautioned.

Andi is a member of the seven-member team which drew up the government-sponsored drafts of political bills under House deliberation. The team proposed a district electoral system in line with suggestions from various parties.

Arbi suggested a more realistic approach would be to hold a two-stage general election to determine parties most representative of the public.

"It is not enough to hold a free and fair general election but the election should also result in a strong leader and a majority party," he said.

"Therefore, the general election should be held in two phases... In the first phase, an election is held to net major parties and, then, in the second phase, major parties which received at least 10 percent of votes in the first phase would compete to be the majority party."

He recommended the two-phase election be held between June and October, thus delaying the General Session of the People's Consultative Assembly until December.

Indria and Andi faulted the proposition.

Indria said an election geared to a single majority would lead to a dictatorship like the previous government.

Needed instead was a democratic and legitimate government, he said.