Experts discount social revolution but urge caution

Experts discount social revolution but urge caution

By Ridwan Max Sijabat & M.M.I. Ahyani

JAKARTA (JP): Political experts played down on Saturday
widespread fears of a social revolution, but warned against
complacency because violence and political chaos could persist
until the general election in June.

Arbi Sanit of the University of Indonesia, Indria Samego of
the Indonesian Institute of Sciences and Andi A. Mallarangeng of
the Ujungpandang-based Hasanuddin University separately told The
Jakarta Post that some groups favoring the status quo of the New
Order government or disappointed with the present government
might work to incite violence.

The observers were asked to comment on developments in the
wake of plans to hold a general election in June and the General
Session of the People's Consultative Assembly in August, which
will elect a new president.

"Many sporadic and local violent riots are expected to occur
across the country in the coming months, but they will not lead
to a social revolution because they would be facing the proreform
movement and the current government, including the military,"
Arbi said.

He said proreform groups including students would continue
with their movement for democracy through a general election to
form a legitimate government.

"Until the general elections in June, we will continue to run
in place, meaning no political changes will be made and, despite
riots, the pro-status quo groups would not to be able to return
to power."

The experts criticized the initiative of leading Muslim leader
Abdurrahman Wahid to hold a national dialog, which included
meeting former president Soeharto, to try to make him part of the
dialog. They said the inclusion of Soeharto was unacceptable.

Abdurrahman, who says a national dialog is needed to avoid a
social revolution, has argued it should involve Soeharto apart
from President B.J. Habibie, Minister of Defense and
Security/ABRI Commander Gen. Wiranto and himself as head of
Nahdlatul Ulama, which boasts 30 million members.

Gus Dur, as Abdurrahman is known, said on Saturday that
Soeharto should be involved because many people "still love him".
He formerly argued that the loyalists would "react" if Soeharto
was treated "inhumanely", necessitating the need to include him
in the dialog.

The government has started an investigation into Soeharto's
wealth following public demands that he be held accountable for
alleged abuse of power. Abdurrahman said on Friday he doubted
whether Soeharto was serious about engaging in a dialog.

Indria said fears of a social revolution were "dramatized".

On Thursday Alwi Sihab, deputy of the People's Awakening Party
which Abdurrahman chairs, said in Bandung that Abdurrahman was
trying all means possible to quell the continuous violence.

Alwi cited the mysterious killing spree mainly in East Java,
in which more than 100 of the victims were religious teachers and
members of Nahdlatul Ulama.

"Of course, Gus Dur feels he must settle these problems. It is
he alone who can feel this tragedy (the killings of his members).
He's trying everything to avoid a repetition of such violence."

Indria said informal communication among the political elite
would be better and that they should "set good examples" in
respecting the law to attain political stability.

Arbi added a national dialog could only be held if all the
different parties were ready to meet as one.

Elections

Regarding the planned elections, Andi Mallarangeng warned of
more riots if the House of Representatives, which is deliberating
political bills including one on the elections, decided on a
proportional system.

The system would entail a mobilization of the masses,
particularly if massive mobilization and transportation of people
from one regency to another were allowed, he said.

"It is an unwise decision," he cautioned.

Andi is a member of the seven-member team which drew up the
government-sponsored drafts of political bills under House
deliberation. The team proposed a district electoral system in
line with suggestions from various parties.

Arbi suggested a more realistic approach would be to hold a
two-stage general election to determine parties most
representative of the public.

"It is not enough to hold a free and fair general election but
the election should also result in a strong leader and a majority
party," he said.

"Therefore, the general election should be held in two
phases... In the first phase, an election is held to net major
parties and, then, in the second phase, major parties which
received at least 10 percent of votes in the first phase would
compete to be the majority party."

He recommended the two-phase election be held between June and
October, thus delaying the General Session of the People's
Consultative Assembly until December.

Indria and Andi faulted the proposition.

Indria said an election geared to a single majority would lead
to a dictatorship like the previous government.

Needed instead was a democratic and legitimate government, he
said.