Experts Assess Prabowo–Gibran’s Chances of Serving Two Terms

Golkar has said it will nominate Prabowo Subianto as its presidential candidate in the 2029 election. However, the party has not named a figure to run alongside him as vice-president.

Adi Prayitno, director of Parameter Politik Indonesia (PPI), said Golkar’s position could signal that it does not want Gibran Rakabuming Raka to be Prabowo’s running mate again in 2029.

“For Golkar in 2029, Prabowo yes, Gibran no. This is clearly connected to Golkar’s statement confirming that it will back Prabowo again, while it appears reluctant to nominate Gibran as vice-president,” Adi told reporters on Saturday (10 October 2026).

Adi said Golkar was being realistic by backing Prabowo again. In his view, Prabowo’s position as the incumbent gives him a major advantage in the 2029 election.

“Golkar is being realistic by backing Prabowo again in 2029. Whatever you call it, Prabowo is the incumbent and has all the tools to win easily,” he said.

Adi said Gibran faced several obstacles to being paired with Prabowo again. In addition to what he described as a lacklustre electability rating, Gibran does not have a political party of his own.

“At the same time, Gibran’s electability is not particularly strong, and he has no party. It seems irrational for Golkar to nominate him again,” he said.

Agung Baskoro, executive director of Trias Politika, expressed a similar view. He said that, institutionally, the current governing coalition was more focused on ensuring that the Prabowo administration continued into a second term.

“Institutionally, it is clear that today’s governing coalition is more focused on making President Prabowo’s administration successful through to a second term, with a vice-president whose identity we still do not know now that Mr Gibran will no longer be his running mate,” Agung said.

Agung said Golkar was one of the government’s main loyalists, pointing to its representation in the Cabinet.

“Golkar is a key loyalist, providing full support to the government. This is evident in the party’s expanded Cabinet presence, with two coordinating ministers: Airlangga as Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs and Bahlil as Coordinating Minister for Investment and Downstreaming,” he said.

Agung said the appointments showed that Golkar was one of the main parties backing the Prabowo administration.

“This is clear evidence that Golkar has a stronger position than other coalition parties, such as the Democrats, which have just one coordinating minister; the National Awakening Party (PKB), which has one; and the National Mandate Party (PAN), which has one coordinating minister but two deputy coordinating ministers,” he said.

Given its position, Agung said, Golkar’s statement about backing Prabowo in 2029 was unsurprising.

“Golkar and PAN are among the main parties supporting the president today. When Golkar says this, it is likely, institutionally, that Mr Prabowo’s vice-president in his second term will not be Vice-President Gibran,” he said.

“On a personal level, this is a real expression of Golkar’s loyalty. In this context, Bahlil is firmly aligned with the President. We will see the President’s political gestures and expressions, which, in a manner of speaking, suggest he would prefer to seek an alternative to Mr Gibran as his running mate,” he said.

Agung added that the political challenges Gibran had faced while in government could also factor into the choice of Prabowo’s running mate for a second term.

“There have been various political dynamics and cases that Mr Gibran has faced,” he concluded.