Expert warns against hasty regional polls

JAKARTA (JP): A world-renowned expert on international politics said here on Wednesday that the hasty introduction of elections of local governments could ignite separatism in the country's provinces.

Samuel P. Huntington, an American scholar who is known for his 1996 book The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order, said the government had to be "sensitive" to the potential consequences of introducing regional elections while "the processes of consolidating a democratic system are still underway".

"The premature introduction of elections for regional governments could provide incentives for political candidates to make regional appeals against the central government and thus exacerbate pressures towards national disintegration," Huntington told an international seminar on the problems facing Indonesia in its quest for democratization.

Citing the former Soviet Union and Yugoslavia as examples, Huntington said elections held at the subnational level had allowed politicians competing for power in the individual republics to mobilize the ethnic and cultural identities of their state against the central political authorities. Once in office, the politicians had every reason to promote independence, he said.

As part of the full implementation of regional autonomy in January 2001, the government is drafting regulations to include direct local elections.

Huntington said the first requirement in the country should be to promote the transition of an electoral democracy into a constitutional democracy which adopts, among other things, the institutions and procedures which would insure the rule of law and the independence of the judiciary branch of the government.

"At the moment, there is much more to be gained by promoting constitutional democracies than there is in trying to introduce electoral democracies to countries that have only known authoritarian rule," he said.

President Abdurrahman Wahid, who was present on Wednesday to briefly address the seminar, has pledged to restore democracy, the civilian supremacy and the rule of law -- things which were virtually unknown during the past regime.

Military comeback

Minister of Defense Juwono Sudarsono, who also spoke on Wednesday, reiterated, however, that the civilian leaders' failure to construct a "healthy and strong" political atmosphere would lure the military back into power.

"I haven't seen the emergence of an organized collective philosophy on the part of civil organizations," Juwono said.

He added that he would like "to see more interdependence between non-governmental organizations, civil society, youth organizations and political parties".

He also criticized the political parties for the lack of transparency in their financial management.

"The law stipulates that personal contributions must not be more than Rp 15 million a year and corporate contributions must not exceed Rp 150 million, but is this being enforced? Is there any transparency? I very much doubt it," Juwono said.

He added that creating a healthy political atmosphere would now depend on the performance of civilian politicians.

"Democratization is for the civilians to lose rather than for the military to step back into," he said.

Unfortunately, according to Juwono, Indonesia has not achieved a level where a sufficiently strong civil society has emerged. He defined such a civil society as being people who have enough affluence to be directly involved in political activities.

"According to my estimates, there are only 20 million Indonesians, or 10 percent of the population, who can really afford to be involved in day-to-day politics while the rest are still trying to make ends meet," Juwono said, noting that 30 percent was considered a benchmark.

He said that Abdurrahman was now "being tested" whether he could establish a democratic process while also maintaining stability and security.

"Gus Dur (the president's popular nickname) has strong beliefs that state intervention should be calibrated in a way that would encourage local and cultural initiatives.

"But this carries risks because he opens up he political system while the economic situation is not conducive to stability," he said referring to the country's economic crisis.

Juwono said that it would be his responsibility now to provide a limited role for the military and police in order to maintain "a semblance of stability" and establish economic growth and foreign investment in the country.

Foreign investors have repeatedly raised concerns about the country's volatile security climate.

Juwono said on Tuesday, however, that security personnel were finding it difficult to meet minimum performance standards required for maintaining security given the inadequate funds that have been allotted to them.

"It is not an easy job to provide protective security for installations as far away as Arun in Aceh and Freeport in Papua ... and this is made much more difficult by the discrediting of the military and police over the past two years," he said. (byg)