Expert Projects Gradual Decline in Pertamax Fuel Prices Through December
The window for reducing non-subsidised fuel prices has opened, as seen with the recent price drops in Dexlite and Pertamina Dex.
Energy economics expert from Padjadjaran University (Unpad), Yayan Satylyaki, projects that the price of Pertamax fuel will gradually decrease from Rp16,250 per litre in June towards a range of Rp12,100–Rp13,500 per litre by December 2026.
“The room for reducing non-subsidised fuel prices is now open. Dexlite and Pertamina Dex have already decreased,” Yayan stated when contacted in Jakarta on Saturday.
He projects that Pertamax prices will fall to Rp15,228 per litre in July, then to Rp14,557 per litre in August, Rp14,112 per litre in September, Rp13,814 per litre in October, Rp13,614 per litre in November, and finally to Rp13,479 per litre in December.
This projection is based on the expectation that the Indonesian Crude Price (ICP) will gradually decline towards the level of 90.6 US dollars per barrel by December 2026, alongside a gradual strengthening of the exchange rate from Rp17,927 to Rp16,959 by December 2026.
Furthermore, Yayan noted that the dynamics of the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran remain volatile. Brent crude oil prices briefly touched 117 US dollars per barrel in April, before quickly correcting to the range of 78 US dollars per barrel following the US-Iran peace framework that was originally scheduled to be signed in Switzerland on Friday (19/6).
Subsequently, Brent crude prices rose back above 80 US dollars (approximately Rp1.4 million) per barrel on Friday (19/6), as investors weighed increasing geopolitical risks following the cancellation of planned negotiations between the United States and Iran, as well as new Israeli attacks in Lebanon.
Global crude oil prices also influence the Indonesian Crude Price (ICP) used to determine non-subsidised fuel prices. In the 2026 State Budget (APBN), the macro assumption sets the ICP at a level of 70 US dollars per barrel.
“My recommendation is that the government needs to prepare scenario simulations, for instance, an ICP of 70–90 US dollars per barrel, because regime uncertainty is far greater than ordinary statistical error,” said Yayan.
Nevertheless, he believes Indonesia’s fiscal buffer remains strong enough to face a scenario involving the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, although a significant portion of the buffer would be utilised.
He explained that the government possesses a Budget Surplus (SAL) of approximately Rp420 trillion and is maintaining a deficit within the 2.9 per cent range. With an average ICP at the 90 US dollar per barrel level, the deficit would widen by approximately Rp136 trillion.
Meanwhile, assuming a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz causes the average ICP to reach 100 US dollars per barrel, the deficit would widen by approximately Rp204 trillion.
“This means the Rp420 trillion SAL can still cover the reopening scenario without cutting expenditure, but it serves as a one-time insurance rather than a structural solution,” concluded Yayan.