Expert predicts long political uncertainty

UJUNGPANDANG, South Sulawesi (JP): Political uncertainty will continue ahead of the general session of the People's Consultative Assembly in March, a constitutional law expert predicted over the weekend.

Yusril Ihza Mahendra of University of Indonesia, Jakarta, said the political tension, which has been sparked by speculation surrounding President Soeharto's health, would grip the country over the next three months because the existing political system was incapable of accommodating various problems in society.

"The government's failure to set up a system (that accommodates problems) has caused people to resort to speculation," Yusril said.

The 1,000-strong Assembly will convene here from March 1 to March 11, 1998, to endorse the State Policy Guidelines and elect a president and vice president. About the only certainty in the coming election was that President Soeharto would be renominated and reelected to his seventh term. Other matters, including who will be the next vice president, have been left to speculation.

President Soeharto's 10-day rest, upon the advice of his medical team, triggered rumors recently that he was seriously ill. It caused panic both on the bourse floor and currency market, with the rupiah sinking to a record low of Rp 6,000 against the U.S. dollar.

Yusril said uncertainty had affected cabinet ministers, as shown in how many of them gauged their success with whether they managed to produce a law during their respective tenure.

"As a result, each minister fights it out to draw up a bill, disregarding criticism and controversy that often mar all stages of deliberation of a draft in the House of Representatives," said Yusril.

He said due to poor preparations, the 1992 traffic bill and the recent manpower bill were examples of the establishment of regulations that only sparked controversy.

Another expert, Andi Muis, agreed with Yusril, saying that political uncertainty was the fruit of a political culture which does not tolerate transparency.

"Everybody speculates about what's actually going on. This allows people to believe in rumors," said Muis, a mass communications expert of the Hasanuddin University in Ujungpandang.

He blamed the uncertainty on the government's habit of choosing a political approach over legal measures when dealing with legal matters.

According to Muis, the alleged misuse of Rp 7.1 billion (US$1.4 million) of funds owned by a state workers' insurance firm PT Jamsostek by Minister of Manpower Abdul Latief was among the latest proof of the government's inconsistency.

Latief denied that the money was used to pay for incentives for House legislators who deliberated the manpower bill. He later said President Soeharto ordered the use of the Jamsostek funds.

Muis suggested that the government nurture transparency, lest the prevailing uncertainty endanger national stability.

"Except for Mar'ie Muhammad (minister of finance), the current cabinet ministers lack initiative. They tend to seek the President's protection when facing difficulties," Muis said.

He also called on the press to be straightforward in its reports, so that the public would know the truth.

In Jakarta, political scientist Muhammad A.S. Hikam said speculation in connection with Soeharto's health reflected the nation's inability to cope with such a crucial issue as succession of national leadership

"People have been overreacting because they didn't know what to do in response to the sudden crisis," said Hikam, who is from the National Institute of Sciences.

He said the dominant political group Golkar should have the courage to announce its candidate for vice president, or at least a list of candidates, to help ease public anxiety.

Golkar chairman Harmoko has repeatedly said that it would only unveil its vice presidential candidate during the Assembly's general session in March.

Hikam said Golkar's decision has caused other political groups to follow suit. (37/09/amd)