Expert Outlines Two Scenarios for Possible US Strike on Iran This Weekend
The United States is reportedly prepared to launch a strike on Iran should President Donald Trump give the order, with the attack potentially taking place as early as this weekend.
Hikmahanto Juwana, Professor of International Law at the University of Indonesia (UI), has assessed the likelihood of the US actually striking Iran, outlining two possible scenarios.
“As of this moment, in my view there are still two possibilities. The first is that the strike will be postponed, because the claim that an attack would come on Saturday is essentially a Trump bluff designed to pressure Iran into quickly agreeing to what is being negotiated between the US and Iran,” Hikmahanto told reporters on Friday (20 February 2026).
“The US may consider that Iran has been stalling in reaching an agreement,” he added.
The second possibility, he said, is that Trump may indeed order the strike. One concrete indication of this is the presence of Russian military aircraft in Iran, ready to retaliate against any US attack.
“The second possibility is that Trump will carry out the strike. If this happens, Iran has already prepared itself. A number of Russian military aircraft have even arrived in Iran. It appears Russia will back Iran,” he said.
“If this occurs, the war will widen. It is entirely possible that Iran would attack Israel, knowing that Israel represents a US vulnerability,” he added.
Furthermore, should the threat prove to be merely a bluff from Trump, Hikmahanto noted that this would be characteristic of the president’s approach.
“If the first scenario plays out, it would be a blow to Trump. In the US, Trump is referred to as TACO — Trump Always Chickens Out,” he said.
Previously, the massive deployment of US military assets in the Middle East — including warships, fighter jets, and refuelling aircraft — was seen as laying the groundwork for a potential sustained strike against Iran, should President Donald Trump give the order.
Trump, who ordered strikes against Iran last year, has repeatedly threatened Tehran with military action if ongoing negotiations fail to produce a replacement for the nuclear agreement that the US president himself withdrew from in 2018.
Reports from leading US media outlets, including CNN and CBS, as cited by AFP on Thursday (19 February 2026), indicated that the US military would be ready to launch strikes against Iran as early as this weekend, although Trump has yet to make a final decision.
The White House, according to several sources cited by CNN, has been briefed that the military could be ready to launch strikes over the weekend, following a significant increase in the deployment of air force and naval assets to the Middle East in recent days.