Europe on High Alert as New Energy Crisis Looms
The European Union (EU) is facing the threat of a gas supply crisis ahead of the coming winter. The situation is feared to trigger a surge in energy costs for households and businesses, with gas reserves projected to be at their lowest level in 15 years.
Citing a Financial Times report that referenced projections by consultancy Wood Mackenzie, EU gas storage facilities are expected to be only 76% full by the end of the refilling season, which runs from April to October. “This level would be the lowest pre-winter level since 2011,” the report stated.
Pressure on Europe’s energy supply has mounted after the bloc gradually reduced imports of Russian oil and gas following the escalation of the Ukraine conflict four years ago. As a result, Europe has become increasingly reliant on more expensive liquefied natural gas (LNG), particularly from the United States, replacing the relatively cheaper Russian pipeline gas.
The situation is expected to become more complicated as the EU plans to halt imports of Russian LNG starting 1 January 2027. This date is part of regulations approved by EU member states in January 2026 to gradually end energy dependence on Russia. The policy could potentially eliminate a supply source that currently accounts for about 14% of the bloc’s total LNG imports. Additionally, disruptions to LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz amid the US-Iran conflict, coupled with declining production in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), are further tightening global supply.
Wood Mackenzie warned that gas prices are likely to continue rising ahead of winter, especially if Europe experiences colder-than-usual weather in early 2027. Echoing this sentiment, Argus Media analyst Natasha Fielding noted that the longer the global LNG market remains tight, the lower European gas reserves will be entering winter, and the greater the risk of sharp price spikes.
According to the Financial Times, EU gas storage facilities were only 28% full at the start of the refilling season, following a colder-than-usual winter. Although filling levels have since risen to an average of 48%, this figure still reflects significant challenges in meeting reserve targets before winter arrives.
Meanwhile, Europe’s dependence on US energy supplies is also a growing concern. A previous Politico report indicated that about a quarter of the EU’s gas imports now come from the US. Several diplomats have warned that Washington could potentially leverage this position to support its foreign policy agenda. Just last week, the US reportedly threatened to divert LNG exports to other markets if Brussels proceeds with stricter methane emission rules.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has previously asserted that Moscow is ready to redirect gas exports to developing nations if the European market becomes increasingly closed. According to Putin, the energy crisis currently facing the EU is a consequence of “misguided policies” pursued over many years.