Europe Faces Looming Jet Fuel Crisis, Ticket Prices Could Rise and Flights May Be Cut

Europe faces a looming threat of a jet fuel crisis in the near future. This situation is triggered by the prolonged conflict in the Middle East, which is disrupting global oil distribution routes, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz.

If the situation persists, the impacts could be immediately felt in the aviation sector, from schedule reductions to surges in ticket prices.

Several analysts warn that this crisis could be widespread and systemic. This means disruptions would not only affect one airline or country but could extend to the entire European aviation industry. Even flight cuts are predicted to begin within weeks.

Claudio Galimberti, chief economist at Rystad Energy, stated that the situation heavily depends on the smoothness of oil supplies. “The situation in the next three to four weeks could become systemic, so severe flight cuts in Europe could start in May and June,” he said, as quoted from CNBC on Wednesday, 15 April 2026.

This disruption stems from the halt of ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz after Iran closed the route amid conflict with the United States and Israel. Following failed peace negotiations, the United States continued pressure by blockading ships entering and leaving Iranian ports.

Rico Luman, senior economist at ING, warned that a supply crisis could occur soon. “There are many warnings about shortages that will happen in the coming weeks if supplies do not return.”

“We have seen these ships stop, so supplies from the Middle East have run out, and we need replacements,” he added.

The impacts are already being felt in various regions. According to Luman, supply disruptions are not only occurring in Europe but also spreading from Asia. “We have seen limitations in countries like Vietnam and Thailand in air travel, but this is also spreading to Europe because this is a global market.”

The rise in jet fuel prices is a direct impact of this situation. Data shows prices surged by 103% monthly in March. In the United States, prices rose from US$2.50 per gallon or equivalent to Rp42,500 to US$4.88 per gallon or equivalent to Rp82,960.