EU Expansion Accelerated: How Ready is the Bloc to Admit New Members?

Brussels is pushing to expand EU membership but faces strong internal resistance, with some member states prioritising reforms. Montenegro is currently the most viable candidate.

EU enlargement is a priority, said European Union Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos. ‘If candidate countries meet their targets, we must also uphold our commitments,’ she stated ahead of the EU foreign ministers’ meeting in Brussels earlier this month.

As proof that expansion plans are more than rhetoric, Kos pointed to April when, for the first time in 17 years, the EU began accession negotiations with Montenegro.

‘There is no clearer signal that the EU sees Montenegro as the next member state,’ said Strahinja Subotic, senior programme manager and researcher at the European Policy Centre (CEP) in Belgrade, to DW.

Expansion: geopolitical and security issue

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 brought enlargement back to the heart of European politics, transforming a once-technical process into a geopolitical and security issue.

‘The geopolitical need for expansion is acknowledged by all member states,’ said Steven Blockmans of the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS).

‘However, this is always accompanied by two factors: on one hand, a merit-based approach where candidate countries are assessed on reforms completed, with no shortcuts offered; and second, the EU’s need to change its policy-making and governance methods,’ he told DW.

Is the current accession model still fit for purpose?

Debates in Brussels are increasingly focusing not just on expansion but whether the EU’s traditional accession model remains relevant.

Commissioner Marta Kos acknowledged the EU still uses methodologies developed four decades ago.

‘What we are now discussing with member states is whether the principle of gradual integration, primarily used in the single market, could also apply to other areas, particularly security,’ she said.

New phased integration models for the EU are under consideration

In recent EU expansion proposals, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz called for opening all negotiation chapters with Ukraine and suggested an ‘associate membership’ to bind Kyiv closer to the EU even before full accession, including greater participation in EU institutions and foreign and security policy.

At the same time, Merz proposed special access to the EU single market for Western Balkan countries and Moldova, observer status in EU bodies, and phased integration into decision-making processes to accelerate their path to membership.

Such ideas have circulated in Brussels and other European capitals for years.

Phased EU accession model

Steven Blockmans, one of the authors of the ‘phased accession’ model, told DW that elements of this approach have gradually entered mainstream EU thinking through the Western Balkans Growth Plan and proposals from countries like France, Germany, and Lithuania.

‘You can see elements of a more phased approach where benefits from reforms are delivered in the early pre-accession phases,’ Blockmans said.

Resistance to some Ukraine proposals

Blockmans noted that some more ambitious proposals for Ukraine have faced resistance.

One such idea, dubbed ‘reverse enlargement’, supported by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and some in the European Commission, would see Ukraine formally join the EU first before completing reforms.

This concept was quickly rejected by member states.

Taboo idea no longer entirely taboo

Merz’s proposal has revived one of the most sensitive questions about future expansion: how much decision-making power new members should have from the outset, particularly in areas requiring unanimous agreement in the EU.

The debate has refocused attention on one of Brussels’ most controversial ideas: temporarily limiting the veto rights of new members after accession.

The proposal was developed as part of the phased accession model by CEPS researchers, including Steven Blockmans and CEP analyst Strahinja Subotic.

‘Not second-class membership’

According to Subotic, the aim is not to create ‘second-class membership’, as some critics argue, but to reassure sceptical member states that expansion won’t paralyse unity.

He argued restrictions could be limited in both time and scope.

‘It could apply only to one or two policy areas and not necessarily in the same way or duration for each candidate country,’ Subotic said.

Legally, Blockmans said such mechanisms could be included in accession agreements. Politically, however, the issue remains highly sensitive due to sovereignty and equal rights among member states.

Nevertheless, some Western Balkan countries have shown openness to the idea. Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Serbia have all expressed willingness to accept temporary veto restrictions if it helps pave the way to accession.

Montenegro as a test case

However, Montenegro does not want delays or transitional arrangements. Analysts say Montenegro is likely to be the last country to join the EU under current rules before deeper institutional reforms are made. At the same time, both Blockmans and Subotic believe Montenegro’s accession could serve as a testing ground for some of the new expansion mechanisms currently debated in Brussels. Subotic proposed…