Estrada's grip on power may in the end slip, say analysts
Estrada's grip on power may in the end slip, say analysts
By P. Parameswaran
MANILA (AFP): Scandal-tainted President Joseph Estrada may
find it tough clinging on to power despite apparently wriggling
his way out of his worst crisis since he took office two-and-a-
half years ago, analysts said Wednesday.
His name has been dragged in the mud during the month-long
corruption trial in the senate where prosecution witnesses heaped
damning testimony against him -- from allegedly taking cold cash
from illegal gambling lords to wining and dining with smugglers
in his palace.
Analysts said a senate decision Tuesday effectively clearing
him of a battery of graft charges may turn out to be a hollow
victory for the 63-year-old former movie star whose six-year term
in office ends in 2004.
The political crisis that arose from corruption and abuse of
power charges leveled against him has divided the archipelago of
75 million people as well as the Senate and the House of
Representatives and sent the economy into a tailspin.
Even on the diplomatic front, analysts said, Manila might face
obstacles building foreign relations at the summit level with
Estrada at the helm.
One analyst at a foreign think tank pointed out that it would
be embarrassing for foreign government leaders to call on him
here after the damaging testimony presented and publicized during
the senate trial.
"I am not sure in the long term but if you are talking of the
present time, even among ASEAN neighbors, I don't think any
leader would want to come here and shake his tainted hands," a
regional diplomat said. "It will really be difficult."
Despite Estrada's likely acquittal, "the fact will remain that
we will be left not only with a severely wounded Senate but, more
importantly, with a badly battered presidency," said Joaquin
Bernas, the president of the Ateneo de Manila University.
"The uncontradicted picture that has emerged so far is of a
president deeply immersed in criminality," said Bernas, a key
framer of the Philippine constitution.
"The damage has been done not just to the person of the
president but also to the national economy and to the reputation
of the Philippines within the community of nations."
While under fire during his corruption trial, Estrada already
surrendered his chairmanship of the powerful policy-making
Economic Coordinating Council to Finance Secretary Jose Pardo.
His wings were clipped further with the appointment of former
agriculture secretary Edgardo Angara as his executive secretary
with vast powers, some officials claimed.
Palace sources say the well-respected Anggara, credited for
helping reform the vast farm sector, would enjoy powers
equivalent to that of a prime minister in the post-acquittal
scenario.
Former president Fidel Ramos said there was a possibility of a
"palace coup" resulting in Estrada's men moving the president
into a ceremonial position and establishing a transitional
government to take over.
"In that kind of arrangement -- I am sorry to say -- I will
fight because it's unconstitutional," he said.
Alex Magno, a political scientist at the University of the
Philippines, said Estrada's acquittal would "court a period of
intense turbulence whose outcome will be difficult to imagine at
this point."
He said sections in the military had signaled that once
civilians take the lead, important units could leave their
barracks and join the crowds in the streets.
Sources close to the military say however that there are no
indications yet of such a military-led coup.
"The Estrada presidency will not just be politically isolated.
It will be physically cut off as well," Magno said.
"Every businessman, every political risk analyst and every
investor knows that the acquittal of Estrada will produce an
unmitigated calamity for our economy," he warned.