Fri, 27 Apr 2001

Estrada's arrest a historic event for RP

BANGKOK: Former Philippine president Joseph Estrada spent his first night in jail in a comfortably furnished cell at a police camp after being arrested on charges of state plunder on Wednesday. The 3.5 metre by 5.5 metre cell inside the sprawling Camp Crame in Manila came equipped with an air-conditioning unit, a soft cot, a clean bathroom and a corner desk where Estrada could sit down and write his memoirs, Interior Secretary Jose Lina said.

Without doubt, Estrada has a story to tell. He is the first former Philippine president to be thrown in jail, and the first Asian leader to be impeached. Should he decide to take up Lina's offer, the most problematic part for Estrada will probably be working out where his fairy tale story went so horribly wrong.

The black-sheep son of a middle class family, he found fame and fortune as a movie star before entering into politics during the Marcos years. Even after his mentor's exit in disgrace Estrada's star continued to rise -- despite the fact that he achieved little -- culminating in his election to president in 1998 with the biggest-ever majority for a Philippine leader.

The run of good fortune ended in January when he was ousted amid People Power protests triggered by allegations of spectacular corruption.

Even if some of the charges are true, Estrada could probably still honestly ask, but why me? Corruption and influence-peddling are a part of business, military and political life in the Philippines, as in much of the rest of Southeast Asia.

Estrada's mistake appears to have been to under-estimate the strength of the economic bloc: those with stakes in the market, the business class, the middle class, and foreign investors. When he took power two and half years ago, the Philippines was well placed to lead Asia out of its crisis.

Instead, growth slowed to less than half the pace in the rest of the region, the peso slumped and the stock market lost ground. Even though he maintained his strong political base among the economically disenfranchised, Estrada's time in office was running out.

Outrage was soon added to incompetence as stories about late night games of high-stakes baccarat, and payoffs from gambling den operators and kidnap gang leaders began to circulate. Prosecutors now charge that within a two-and-a-half-year period Estrada raked in US$80 million from the abuse of his position.

What are the lessons from Estrada's fall?

Firstly, that globalization has changed the rules of the game. With so many of the elite's interests tied to the international economy and flows of investment, rulers who disregard the basic wellbeing of the economy are living on borrowed time.

Secondly, that People Power movements guarantee nothing. Estrada may be gone, like Marcos before him, but little else has changed. It's still the same families, and business groups that dominate parliament.

President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, Estrada's replacement, must prove that he wasn't just removed because his woeful administrative abilities were hurting some sections of the middle and ruling classes. The only way to do that is to ensure power and wealth are more equitably distributed in the Philippines.

It's important the Philippines not forget that Estrada was removed through the non-constitutional intervention of the military. As the poor's continued support for Estrada showed, democracy doesn't work well in a land where economic rights are not shared in the same manner as voting rights.

Presidential spokesman Rigoberto Tiglao described Estrada's arrest as a "historic event. We showed that the former highest official of the land could be held answerable for his actions".

That is true and admirable. But whether Estrada's arrest will be a watershed event remains to be seen. For that to happen, the system must change. Only then will Arroyo honestly be able to say, as she did yesterday, that "corruption does not pay".

-- The Nation/Asia News Network