Estrada in fight to save economic agenda

By Ruben Alabastro

MANILA (Reuters): Philippine President Joseph Estrada may find himself under siege soon unless he quickly defuses a political storm stirred up by his proposal to change the constitution, analysts said on Sunday.

The first casualty of what is shaping up to be a protracted fight between the former movie actor and a powerful church-led opposition coalition may be his economic agenda, they said.

"His most urgent step is to begin the process of consolidation to arrest polarization," political analyst Alex Magno told Reuters. "It's going to be a test of statesmanship".

"He could be stalled on the charter change issue and that would be a major political defeat... He might spend the rest of his term fighting off a siege."

Battle lines were drawn last weekend when churchmen, business executives, middle class workers and leftist unionists marched by the thousands in Manila's Makati financial center to denounce Estrada's constitutional reform program as an assault on democracy.

Tens of thousands more marched in nine other cities in the biggest protest Estrada has faced since he took office 14 months ago.

Estrada unloosed the tempest when he announced earlier this month his plan to dismantle economic provisions in the charter to let foreigners take control of utilities and own land.

But suspicions lurk that he also wants to scrap a provision that limits a president to a single six-year term -- a shield against the rise of another dictator like Ferdinand Marcos.

Idolized by the masses for his film roles as a hero of the underdog, Estrada appealed for support in a counter-rally attended by more than a million poor Filipinos.

"His card is the masa (masses) card," said Antonio Gatmaitan, president of the private think-tank Political Economic Applied Research Foundation. "This could lead to many things, a sort of a subtle 'class war'."

Some of the major players who toppled Marcos in a 1986 popular revolt marched against Estrada last Friday, including Cardinal Jaime Sin and former president Corazon Aquino.

Analysts partly blame Estrada's troubles on his leadership style, typified by his perceived lack of coolness and public displays of pique at his harshest critics. Estrada attributes this to his natural candor and distaste for hypocrisy.

"One failure of his leadership is that he has not really reached out to the diverse groups in society," said Magno, a political science professor at the University of the Philippines.

"He should have a sober dialogue with them rather than engage them in toe-to-toe rhetoric."

Peter Wallace, president of the Manila-based AYC Consultancy, agrees that reforming the economic framework would entice investors, but says the manner of doing it also counts.

"If he just bulldozes his way through, it would be disastrous. He has to do it more carefully, with more explanation," Wallace said.

Analysts say it is unlikely the fight will end soon, given Estrada's statements that he would not back down no matter how massive the protests.

The next confrontation could take place on Sept. 21 when Sin and Aquino are expected to summon their army back onto the streets on the anniversary of Marcos's 1972 declaration of martial law.

Economist Solita Monsod fears prolonged debate on the constitution will divert the nation's focus from its urgent economic problems.

"Changing the constitution now may be so divisive that it will destabilize the country," she said.

Political analyst Amando Doronila, in a commentary in the Philippine Daily Inquirer on Sunday, said it was not too late for Estrada to step back.

"In politics, tactical retreat is not a cowardly action. It is a formula to avoid...political annihilation," he said.

Said analyst Leandro Coronel: "Mr Estrada can still save the day by being statesmanlike... The fire next time could be inextinguishable."