Estrada in fight to save economic agenda

Estrada in fight to save economic agenda

By Ruben Alabastro

MANILA (Reuters): Philippine President Joseph Estrada may find
himself under siege soon unless he quickly defuses a political
storm stirred up by his proposal to change the constitution,
analysts said on Sunday.

The first casualty of what is shaping up to be a protracted
fight between the former movie actor and a powerful church-led
opposition coalition may be his economic agenda, they said.

"His most urgent step is to begin the process of consolidation
to arrest polarization," political analyst Alex Magno told
Reuters. "It's going to be a test of statesmanship".

"He could be stalled on the charter change issue and that
would be a major political defeat... He might spend the rest of
his term fighting off a siege."

Battle lines were drawn last weekend when churchmen, business
executives, middle class workers and leftist unionists marched by
the thousands in Manila's Makati financial center to denounce
Estrada's constitutional reform program as an assault on
democracy.

Tens of thousands more marched in nine other cities in the
biggest protest Estrada has faced since he took office 14 months
ago.

Estrada unloosed the tempest when he announced earlier this
month his plan to dismantle economic provisions in the charter to
let foreigners take control of utilities and own land.

But suspicions lurk that he also wants to scrap a provision
that limits a president to a single six-year term -- a shield
against the rise of another dictator like Ferdinand Marcos.

Idolized by the masses for his film roles as a hero of the
underdog, Estrada appealed for support in a counter-rally
attended by more than a million poor Filipinos.

"His card is the masa (masses) card," said Antonio Gatmaitan,
president of the private think-tank Political Economic Applied
Research Foundation. "This could lead to many things, a sort of a
subtle 'class war'."

Some of the major players who toppled Marcos in a 1986 popular
revolt marched against Estrada last Friday, including Cardinal
Jaime Sin and former president Corazon Aquino.

Analysts partly blame Estrada's troubles on his leadership
style, typified by his perceived lack of coolness and public
displays of pique at his harshest critics. Estrada attributes
this to his natural candor and distaste for hypocrisy.

"One failure of his leadership is that he has not really
reached out to the diverse groups in society," said Magno, a
political science professor at the University of the Philippines.

"He should have a sober dialogue with them rather than engage
them in toe-to-toe rhetoric."

Peter Wallace, president of the Manila-based AYC Consultancy,
agrees that reforming the economic framework would entice
investors, but says the manner of doing it also counts.

"If he just bulldozes his way through, it would be disastrous.
He has to do it more carefully, with more explanation," Wallace
said.

Analysts say it is unlikely the fight will end soon, given
Estrada's statements that he would not back down no matter how
massive the protests.

The next confrontation could take place on Sept. 21 when Sin
and Aquino are expected to summon their army back onto the
streets on the anniversary of Marcos's 1972 declaration of
martial law.

Economist Solita Monsod fears prolonged debate on the
constitution will divert the nation's focus from its urgent
economic problems.

"Changing the constitution now may be so divisive that it will
destabilize the country," she said.

Political analyst Amando Doronila, in a commentary in the
Philippine Daily Inquirer on Sunday, said it was not too late for
Estrada to step back.

"In politics, tactical retreat is not a cowardly action. It is
a formula to avoid...political annihilation," he said.

Said analyst Leandro Coronel: "Mr Estrada can still save the
day by being statesmanlike... The fire next time could be
inextinguishable."