ESDM Sets ICP at US$102.26 per Barrel
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) has set the Indonesian Crude Price (ICP) at US$102.26 per barrel for March 2026. This figure marks the highest level in the past year and significantly exceeds the 2026 State Revenue and Expenditure Budget (APBN) assumption of US$70 per barrel.
The Director General of Oil and Gas at the Ministry of ESDM, Laode Sulaeman, explained that the ICP has risen sharply compared to February 2026. “The average ICP for March 2026 increased by US$33.47 per barrel, from US$68.79 to US$102.26 per barrel,” he stated in a written release on Friday, 17 April 2026.
Laode attributed the price surge to escalating geopolitical conflicts involving the United States-Israel and Iran. These tensions are disrupting global energy supplies, including distribution through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles around 20 percent of the world’s oil supply.
Globally, benchmark oil prices also rose throughout March 2026. Brent (ICE) prices climbed to US$99.60 per barrel, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to US$91.00 per barrel, and Dated Brent reached US$103.89 per barrel. Meanwhile, the OPEC Basket even hit US$116.03 per barrel.
This ICP increase is also putting pressure on the state budget. Secretary of the Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs, Susiwijono Moegiarso, noted that every US$1 per barrel rise adds approximately Rp10.3 trillion to state expenditure for energy subsidies and compensation. On the other hand, state revenues only increase by about Rp3.6 trillion, resulting in a deficit of around Rp6.7 trillion.
In light of these conditions, Minister of ESDM Bahlil Lahadalia stated that the government is reviewing adjustments to non-subsidised fuel prices. He said non-subsidised fuel prices follow market mechanisms in line with regulations.
“It is calculated through adjustments. The country must also make adjustments; yesterday the price suddenly rose, so we are making adjustments,” said Bahlil on Friday, 17 April 2026.
Nevertheless, Bahlil assured that subsidised fuel prices will not rise. He stated that Pertalite prices will not increase until the end of the year, in line with instructions from President Prabowo Subianto.
A lecturer from the Faculty of Economics at Gadjah Mada University (UGM), Fahmy Radhi, said the global oil price increase will create a dilemma for the government. If subsidised fuel prices are not raised at the consumer level, the APBN burden to cover the price differential will swell.
However, if the government raises prices at the consumer level, inflation will occur. “Because the largest fuel consumers are Pertalite and diesel. So this is indeed a difficult choice for the government,” he said.