Energy Crisis Recovery Could Be Worse Than IEA Predictions
Jakarta – The global energy crisis has the potential to last longer and be deeper than initial estimates. Supply disruptions in the Middle East due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have sparked serious concerns over world economic stability.
More than two months after tensions between the United States (US) and Iran escalated, this vital global energy distribution route remains not fully open to tanker traffic. This situation has led to over 10 million barrels per day of crude oil production in the Middle East coming to a halt.
This has triggered a surge in energy prices while heightening the risk of a global economic slowdown. The threat of recession is emerging if oil distribution disruptions persist for the coming months.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) and several global analysts estimate that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen in April 2026, with oil production recovering by May 2026. However, to date, supplies are still held up in the Persian Gulf region as onshore storage tanks are reportedly full, while tankers cannot cross the route.
The IEA states that the recovery of global energy supply stability depends on various factors, from increased security and political stability, the resumption of Hormuz trade flows, the mobilisation of skilled labour and contractors, to the normalisation of supply chains, tanker insurance, and financing.
“After the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the restoration of security for trade flows, we estimate it will take about two months to rebuild stable exports, and initial volumes will remain below pre-conflict levels,” the IEA said, quoted from Oil Price on Wednesday, 29 April 2026.
Even if the Strait of Hormuz opens today, global analysts say supply recovery will not happen quickly. The process of distributing oil to consumers, particularly in Asia, is expected to take months, and in some countries, it could take even longer.
“Some countries might need weeks, but others like Iraq could require months to return production to normal levels,” said Fraser McKay, Head of Upstream Analysis at Wood Mackenzie.