Elections won't bring change for the better: ICG

Agence France-Presse Jakarta

The elections in 2004 are unlikely to improve the country's fortunes as people grow increasingly disillusioned with the new political order, a research group warned Friday.

Cynicism about the past five years of "money politics" following the 1998 fall of autocratic president Soeharto is almost universal, the International Crisis Group (ICG) said in a report.

Confidence in democratic politics has been undermined by politicians and a tendency of many to look back through "rose- tinted spectacles" on the Soeharto era as a time of social peace and relative prosperity.

Indonesia will hold legislative election on April 5 and its first direct presidential poll on July 5.

A second presidential round will be held on Sept. 20 if, as expected, no one gains at least 51 percent in the first round.

The country in 1999 held its first free general election since 1955. The party of incumbent President Megawati Soekarnoputri, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan), secured 153 parliamentary seats.

Golkar, Soeharto's political vehicle, came second with 120.

The ICG said the two parties are likely to remain dominant but their positions may change.

Polls suggested that "many who voted for the underdog PDIP in 1999 have been alienated by its behavior and are returning to Golkar", the report said.

"Among potential presidential candidates, Megawati retains the most support but the gap is narrowing."

Golkar had been unable to capitalize on growing support because it could not chose a presidential candidate. The current chairman, Akbar Tanjung, is appealing against a prison sentence for corruption.

The report said the presidential poll would probably return either Megawati or a Golkar candidate.

But it said: "Both parties are secular-nationalist and operate essentially as patronage networks...it would be unrealistic to expect either to tackle ubiquitous corruption or overhaul the legal system."