Elections no threat to India's reforms
Elections no threat to India's reforms
By V. Anjaiah
JAKARTA (JP): The recent results of state elections in India
may have caused some alarm for the ruling Congress (I) Party and
even concern about the fate of India's embryonic economic
reforms.
But the results are not likely to affect the longevity of the
present government and its impressive economic reforms due to its
hitherto sufficient majority in parliament.
For many poll pundits, the recent assembly election results in
India, which routed the ruling party in three of the four states,
were a great surprise.
Many predicted that Prime Minister Narasimha Rao with his bold
economic reforms would easily lead his 109-year-old party to a
victory stand in the "Southern test". Their prophecy was based on
several factors.
Being a ruling party in the four states where the elections
were held, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Goa, and Sikkim, and also
being a power at the center, the Congress (I) Party was far ahead
of its opponents in terms of publicity and visibility.
Second, Rao is a man who broke the tradition of Indian
politics by becoming the first prime minister from the southern
part of India (Andhra Pradesh). Rao and many firmly believed that
the southern voters would extend their hand of support to the
first premier from the South. In the elections the focus was on
two southern states Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka states, whose
electorate constitute more than 70 percent of 75 million voters
from the four states.
Third, PM Rao's clean image and his government's impressive
performance on the economic front should easily have won the
support of urban people in these states. Moreover these states
were traditionally known as Congress (I)'s strongholds.
Fourth, the opposition parties, which are more divided than
united, were too occupied with internal squabbling and seemed to
have no strength to take on mighty Rao in his homeland.
In addition Rao took these elections as a litmus test of his
abilities and his government's policies.
He knew that a victory in two major southern bastions would
certainly make his position strong in government as well as party
in the run-up to the bigger battle of mid-1996 when the
parliamentary elections will take place.
"We can't afford to lose any elections at this juncture", said
Rao in an interview prior to the election with India Today, the
country's most respectable news magazine.
To ensure a victory for his party, Rao didn't hesitate to
claim himself a Telugu bidda (son of the Telugu people) during
the election campaign. It was this plank that won him the support
from even his party's opponents during his own election to the
parliament in 1991.
But in a surprise move, the poor, illiterate and rural voters
in these states used their biggest weapon of universal franchise
mercilessly against the ruling party. They critically voted in
almost unison with a slogan of: "Think nationally, act locally".
In Rao's home state of Andhra Pradesh, whose per capita income
is Rs 2,184 (US$ 70), far below the national figure of $310, his
party suffered a crushing defeat at the hands of a regional party
called Telugu Desham Party (TDP). The TDP, under the leadership
of a flamboyant movie star N.T. Rama Rao, opposed Rao's economic
reforms and promised cheap rice and a ban on alcohol. The
Congress (I), which had 182 seats in the 295-member assembly,
bagged only 26 seats to TDP's 219.
Surprisingly, in neighboring Karnataka, the centrist Janata
Dal Party, which was on the virtue of collapse following a series
of splits and its leader V.P. Singh's resignation from the
Parliament prior to the polls, clinched 116 seats in the 224 -
member house. The Janata Dal pushed the Rao's party into third
position behind Hindu-dominated Baratiya Janata Party (BJP).
The only sigh of relief came from the tiny state of Goa, a
tourist paradise on the west coast of India. In Goa, Rao's Party
won popular support, but with many humiliations at the hands of
the combined opposition of a regional party and BJP. In Sikkim a
newly formed regional party Sikkim Democratic Front emerged as an
invincible power by winning 19 seats in a house of 32 members.
India has become a favorite destination for foreign investors
since opening its huge economy with a 250 million middle class
population. Thus, one may wonder why Indian voters rejected a
party which saved the country from economic collapse in 1991 and
made it so dear to the world market.
A post-mortem of Congress (I)'s defeat reveals that it was an
anti-establishment vote which has become a trend in recent times.
The Congress party was not alone as many other parties also
experienced the wrath of voters disenchanted with corrupt and
incompetent politicians.
"In the previous 20 state elections held over the past five
years, only two incumbent governments were returned," said the
country's leading poll pundit Prannoy Roy.
The much-publicized economic reforms might have brought in
billions of dollars to the empty coffers of the government
(presently India's foreign exchange reserves stand at an
impressive US$20 billion) and reduced the inflation rate from 17
percent in 1991 to nine percent last year, but they don't appeal
much to India's rural poor, who make up around 70 percent of the
electorate.
Though some analysts cite corruption as one of the main
causes, the results indicate differently. The minorities and
backward sections, who formed the flesh and bones of the Congress
(I) until recently, gradually distanced themselves from the party
due to demolition of Babri Masjid, a 15th century mosque in
Ayodhya in former's case and increasing caste polarization in the
latter's case.
Another important factor in the routing of the ruling party in
these four states was the "local factor". A look at past
elections reveals that Indian voters have been increasingly
favoring regional parties which concentrate more on local issues
in state elections, than on national parties in parliament
elections. Perhaps this may be India's best antidote to
disastrous the poison of disintegration which is claiming
thousands of lives in former Yugoslavia and Soviet Union.
"I don't disagree with the prime minister's argument about the
country's development and stability. He seems sincere. But to me
what the party is going to do for us in the state is more
important," said Rameshwar Naik, a farmer in Mandya District,
Karnataka.
Thanks to the Indian government's strong determination, and
in spite of the ruling party's election debacle, economic reforms
are rapidly moving to a point where they will not turn around.
They are India's future. Without them it would be very difficult
for Mother India to move into next millennium.
That's why what Man Mohan Singh, India's finance minister and
an architect of India's economic reforms, said has become
prominent. He said that economic reforms should not be linked to
murky politics if India wants to join the other Asian Tigers.
Moreover, many people, especially from outside India generally
underestimate the strength of India's democratic institutions.
The present problems like separatism, terrorism, extremism,
fundamentalism and caste-feuds may not have the strength to shake
the strong central government.
Though the elections in four states might have opened a
Pandora's box for Congress (I), they are not in any way going to
affect economic reforms.
The election results opened the eyes of Rao''s party. It's
time to watch Rao, who is an expert in the jungle of Indian
politics, in the forthcoming February assembly polls in five
states, and further the final battle (parliament elections) in
next year.
All in all, there is no need to worry about the fate of
reforms or the stability and secular credentials of India.
Indian democracy has more than 530 million voters with a sense
of political discrimination far beyond that of those who are
literate, urban, rich and addicted to satellite TV.
The writer is a graduate from the School of International
Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, and is currently
learning Indonesian language at the University of Indonesia.