El Niño to Last from June 2026 to May 2027: Differences from Dry Season and Potential Impacts
The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) predicts that the El Niño phenomenon will become active in June 2026 and continue until approximately March to May 2027. This phenomenon is expected to have moderate to strong intensity and has the potential to make the dry season in Indonesia longer and drier than usual.
BMKG Head Teuku Faisal Fatani stated that this condition needs to be monitored closely because El Niño is expected to occur simultaneously with the peak of the dry season in Indonesia. “For this year, El Niño is expected to become active in June, with an intensity ranging from moderate to strong,” Faisal said in Senayan, Jakarta, on Saturday (23/5/2026).
According to him, the most significant impact is predicted to occur during the period from June to September 2026, when Indonesia enters the peak of its dry season. According to BMKG, the dry season is a normal annual climate cycle in Indonesia caused by the influence of the Australian monsoon winds, which bring dry air masses. In other words, the dry season is a routine weather pattern that occurs almost every year.
In contrast, El Niño is a global climate anomaly that does not appear every year. This phenomenon occurs due to the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, which subsequently affects global atmospheric patterns, including those in Indonesia. BMKG notes that El Niño generally emerges every three to seven years.
However, when El Niño occurs alongside the dry season, the impact can become far more extreme. Rainfall may drop drastically, air temperatures may rise, and the risks of drought and forest fires may increase in several regions. “That is what we need to be wary of; during June, July, and August, and specifically the peak of the dry season in August and September, it could make the dry season in Indonesia longer and drier than the averages recorded over the last 30 years,” said Faisal.