El Nino Threatens Hydropower, IESR Urges Reform of National Electricity System
The Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR) has assessed that the electricity sector needs to anticipate increasingly extreme climate patterns. System resilience is no longer sufficient if it relies solely on adding generation capacity; it also requires strengthening the network, increasing system flexibility, and planning operations that are more adaptive to weather changes.
IESR Director of Energy System Transformation Deon Arinaldo stated that climate change presents new challenges for the electricity sector. He noted that the El Nino phenomenon not only affects hydropower plants but also impacts the operation of the entire electricity system.
"Climate change is changing the way we view the reliability of the electricity system. The challenge is not just ensuring the availability of electricity supply, but also ensuring the system can adapt to increasing climate risks," Deon said during a webinar on national electricity system reform in Jakarta on Tuesday.
Deon explained that the electricity system currently faces three main challenges: the increasing frequency of extreme weather threatening infrastructure, changes in electricity demand patterns due to climate change, and the need to accelerate decarbonisation through renewable energy utilisation.
IESR Renewable Energy Analyst Muhammad Ihsan said the experience of El Nino in 2023 showed that hydropower plants are among the most affected assets. The decline in water discharge caused a reduction in generation capability, forcing system operators to adjust operational patterns to maintain supply reliability.
According to Ihsan, this condition highlights the importance of strengthening the flexibility of the electricity system. The development of transmission networks, utilisation of energy storage, and diversification of generation sources must be accelerated so that the system does not rely too heavily on one type of power plant when disruptions occur due to extreme weather.
IESR also assessed that strengthening regulations is a crucial aspect of the mitigation strategy. Updates to the Grid Code and Distribution Code are deemed necessary so that operational standards can anticipate increasing climate risks while supporting the integration of renewable energy.
The think tank encouraged the government to formulate a national grid resilience strategy that includes climate risk mapping for power plants, transmission networks, and substations. Periodic evaluations of system reliability standards are also considered important to ensure policies keep pace with technological developments and the challenges of climate change.
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources stated that strengthening the reliability of the electricity system is one of the focuses of the sector’s evaluation. The government is also accelerating the development of transmission networks to enhance system flexibility and support the integration of renewable energy across various regions.
IESR believes that mitigation strategies against the impacts of El Nino must become part of the long-term planning for the electricity sector. With a more resilient and flexible system, the risk of electricity supply disruptions due to climate change can be minimised while maintaining supply reliability amid the acceleration of the energy transition.