El Nino Phenomenon Strengthens, WMO Urges Countries to Boost Preparedness

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued a serious warning regarding the El Nino phenomenon, which is expected to rapidly develop into a strong category during the July to September 2026 period. This condition has the potential to trigger extreme weather in various parts of the world, ranging from heatwaves to erratic rainfall. In an official update released on 3 July, the UN climate agency stated that El Nino has begun to form in the tropical Pacific. The phenomenon, characterised by warming sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, is predicted to strengthen in the coming months. “El Nino conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific and are expected to strengthen rapidly, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events in many parts of the world,” the WMO official statement read on Monday (6/7). WMO climate scientist Alvaro Silva revealed that the seasonal average sea surface temperature anomaly is expected to exceed the 2 degrees Celsius threshold. Although the peak of El Nino typically occurs between November and February, its impacts are predicted to be felt until the end of 2026 and even extend into 2027. The WMO also highlighted significant risks to the agriculture and health sectors. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo stressed the importance of enhancing early warning systems to mitigate disaster risks. “This will increase the likelihood of droughts, heavy rainfall, and heatwave risks on land and at sea,” Saulo said. Current projections show contrasting rainfall patterns across various regions. Parts of the southwestern United States are likely to experience high rainfall, while India and Australia are expected to face below-average rainfall, triggering drought risks. The real impacts are already being seen in several countries, notably Peru. The local government has declared a 60-day state of emergency across 800 administrative districts since 2 July due to the threat of heavy rains and landslides, endangering more than 9.3 million residents. The WMO asserted that while there is no scientific evidence that climate change increases the frequency of El Nino, global warming is believed to amplify the phenomenon’s impacts. A warmer atmosphere provides more energy for more destructive extreme weather events.