El Nino may return in last half of 2001

JAKARTA (JP): The El Nino weather phenomena that was blamed for severe droughts across Indonesia and the region in 1997 will likely return in the middle or at the end of this year, albeit in a milder form, experts said on Wednesday.

The Meteorology and Geophysics Agency's Paulus Agus Winarso said during a seminar held by the Ministry of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries that it was also possible the El Nino weather phenomena would appear at the beginning of 2002 and 2004.

"Therefore, all sectors must establish plans to avoid possible calamities, from forest fires to decreasing fish production and farm crops," Agus said.

El Nino, however, could result in an increase in the country's fish production, the director of the ministry's research agency, Indroyono Susilo, said.

"Generally, fish production all over the world decreases during El Nino, but in several cases in Indonesia fish production in the eastern part of the Indian Ocean, southern Java and western Sumatra increased," Indroyono said.

He cited the examples of yellowfin tuna and skipjack tuna, two of the country's leading fish commodities that showed significant increases from 1996 to 1998, the period when the impact of El Nino was felt.

"Yellowfin tuna rose to 1.2 million tons from the previous one million tons, and skipjack Tuna went up to almost two million tons from the earlier 1.6 million tons," he said.

These hikes in fish production were possible because during El Nino the sea currents that moved toward Latin America were replaced by those coming from Madagascar, carrying with them chlorophyll and plankton for fish in Indonesian waters, he said.

He suggested that aquaculture fisheries be alert during the dry season brought on by El Nino and switch to other suitable marine products.

"During El Nino, it is better for fishermen to focus on Bandeng fish-farming, which can be done in saltwater, rather than shrimp farming," he said.

People can also switch to the production of seaweed because the price of dried seaweed is much higher than wet seaweed, he said.

"Seaweed can grow in three weeks and when the climate is dry only the sun is needed to dry the product," he said.

El Nino could prove to be a blessing if we anticipate it with the appropriate knowledge and technology, he said.

"With accurate handling and mapping by the related sectors, we will know which areas are fertile and productive for fish production. At the same time, we can anticipate the worst," he said.

Besides causing massive harvest failures, El Nino also contributed to massive forest fires in Sumatra and Kalimantan.

During the El Nino in 1997 and 1998, some 400,000 hectares of forest were destroyed by fire, causing about Rp 9.5 trillion in losses.

"Many people are still suffering from severe respiratory problems from the haze caused by the forest fires.

"Therefore, together with related ministries, we will set up a scheme to deal with this phenomenon," Indroyono said. (edt)